4470 Clarence Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$165,000

None bd · 2.0 ba · 2,308 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1911 4,168 sqft lot $71/sqft · 216% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Excellant income producing property, 1st floor rented for 950.00 per month with a long term tenant, 2nd floor vacant for now but will be rented shortly for 1175 monthly. Tons of upgrades, excellant to add to your rental portfolio.

Key facts

• 4,168 sq ft lot
• Built 1911
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a ?-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,789/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 1655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $165k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.39%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,273
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 215.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4237 Holly Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,332 (+1%)	7mo	$156,900	$67	82
4450 Holly Ave	0.08mi	6/3.0	2,566 (+11%)	3mo	$86,000	$34	72
4511 Red Bud Ave	0.19mi	5/3.0	2,388 (+4%)	12mo	$220,000	$92	71
4210 Holly Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,528 (+10%)	1mo	$37,000	$15	70
4523 Adelaide Ave	0.40mi	8/3.0	2,426 (+5%)	0mo	$89,900	$37	69
4627 Moraine Ave	0.24mi	2/2.0	2,640 (+14%)	0mo	$85,000	$32	65
4356 College Ave	0.67mi	—/—	2,400 (+4%)	4mo	$30,000	$13	58
4587 Carter Ave	0.49mi	—/—	2,080 (-10%)	8mo	$49,900	$24	54
4434 Clarence Ave	0.07mi	6/6.0	2,600 (+13%)	8mo	$60,000	$23	52
4132 San Francisco Ave	0.68mi	—/—	2,160 (-6%)	8mo	$15,000	$7	51
4655 Lee Ave	0.66mi	8/4.0	1,968 (-15%)	6mo	$25,000	$13	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,113
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $36,624
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $490/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,234

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $532	-5% $485	+0% $438	+5% $392	+10% $345
Rent	-10% $297	-5% $368	+0% $438	+5% $509	+10% $580
Rate	-1.0pp $522	-0.5pp $480	base $438	+0.5pp $396	+1.0pp $352

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$1,788
Total (2 units)			$1,789

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4202 Gano Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,168	$0.71	24d	1	0.93mi
4868 Farlin Ave Unit 2 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	2690	$1,100	$0.41	44d	1	1.02mi
4247 Maffitt Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1700	$1,000	$0.59	5d	1	1.25mi
2207 Angelica St Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1734	$1,350	$0.78	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    historical
15. 2026-04-02
    listed $165,000 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Excellant income producing property, 1st floor rented for 950.00 per month with a long term tenant, 2nd floor vacant for now but will be rented shortly for 1175 monthly. Tons of upgrades, excellant to add to your rental portfolio.

16. 2023-06-20
    soldstatus $69,500
17. 2017-05-31
    soldstatus $56,900
18. 2017-05-25
    soldstatus Closed
19. 2017-03-13
    status Pending
20. 2017-03-08
    listed $59,900 Active
21. 2015-12-10
    soldstatus $24,000
22. 2015-12-09
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2015-12-02
    historical
24. 2015-10-15
    price $29,000
25. 2015-07-10
    listed $33,000 Active
26. 2015-04-17
    price $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,110/yr (+$93/mo · 226.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$490
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$642
• After-tax cash flow: $4,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $165,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records
• 2017-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records
• 2017-05-25 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-13 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-08 Listed $59,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-09 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-02 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-15 Price Changed $29,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-10 Listed $33,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-17 Price Changed $33,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $490 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.