82 County Road N8188 -- · White Mountain Lake, AZ 85924

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 1986 Poor condition 10 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home with a beautiful view. Very private 10 acres tucked back into the trees with panoramic view seen from living room, both bedrooms and covered deck. Remodel incomplete. Newly painted inside and outside,new doors,vanity,toilet. Needs new floor covering, fridge, range, wood or pellet stove etc.. Professionally fenced. Security system. Wired for solar power. Great buy with a little work left to complete the update.New metal roof in 2007 Sold As-Is Hauled water.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Site built home
• 10 acres

Tags

• 10 ACRES
• SITE BUILT HOME
• TWO NICE WOODEN TUFF SHEDS
• FULLY FENCED
• BRING YOUR LIVESTOCK
• STEEL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Large lot (assessor records lot size 442,639); Horses allowed
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Utilities: Private well (and hauled water); Septic (connected and in); Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Dirt road access (county maintained)
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Metal roof; Assessor-recorded building area
• Exterior features: Wire fencing; Shed(s); Dirt front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Floor furnace; Wall furnace; Mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Basement
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.2% in White Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#141 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Concho Elementary District (4160) (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #340 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Concho Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #645 of 1,109 statewide, top 60%, 183 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: 437 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Apache County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $722 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Apache County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.44%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $22,950
• Equity at exit: $25,460

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $61,868
• Equity at exit: $33,723

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85924

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 437
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $75,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   remarks 412-char remark
7. 2026-06-09
   listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,043
• − Management: −$1,043
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$737
• After-tax cash flow: $3,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is in a severely damaged state, requiring extensive repairs and clean-up. The property is not move-in ready and requires significant work to be habitable and presentable.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — Kitchen is filled with debris and appears uninhabitable.
• Major Bathroom — Bathroom is filled with debris and appears uninhabitable.
• Major Roof — Roof appears to have damage, possibly from wind or other natural elements.
• Major Exterior walls — Exterior walls are covered in debris and appear uninhabitable.
• Major Flooring — Flooring is covered in debris and appears uninhabitable.
• Major Interior walls/paint — Interior walls are covered in debris and appear uninhabitable.
• Major Windows — Windows are covered in debris and appear uninhabitable.
• Major Foundation/structure — Foundation and structure are covered in debris and appear uninhabitable.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — HVAC and mechanical systems are covered in debris and appear uninhabitable.
• Major Landscaping — Landscaping is neglected and covered in debris, with trash scattered around the property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Clean up debris and remove trash — Removing debris and trash will make the property habitable and presentable.
• Both Repair or replace damaged roof — A repaired or replaced roof will protect the structure and improve the property's appearance.
• Both Repair or replace damaged exterior walls — A repaired or replaced exterior wall will improve the property's appearance and protect the structure.
• Both Repair or replace damaged flooring — A repaired or replaced flooring will improve the property's appearance and make it habitable.
• Both Repair or replace damaged interior walls/paint — A repaired or replaced interior wall and paint job will improve the property's appearance and make it habitable.
• Both Repair or replace damaged windows — A repaired or replaced window will improve the property's appearance and make it habitable.
• Both Repair or replace damaged foundation/structure — A repaired or replaced foundation and structure will protect the property and improve its appearance.
• Both Repair or replace damaged HVAC/mechanicals — A repaired or replaced HVAC and mechanical systems will improve the property's comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape and curb appeal will improve the property's appearance and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · Kitchen is filled with debris and appears uninhabitable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom · Bathroom is filled with debris and appears uninhabitable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Roof appears to have damage, possibly from wind or other natural elements.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior walls · Exterior walls are covered in debris and appear uninhabitable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Flooring is covered in debris and appears uninhabitable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · Interior walls are covered in debris and appear uninhabitable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · Windows are covered in debris and appear uninhabitable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · Foundation and structure are covered in debris and appear uninhabitable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · HVAC and mechanical systems are covered in debris and appear uninhabitable.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Landscaping is neglected and covered in debris, with trash scattered around the property.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Clean up debris and remove trash — Removing debris and trash will make the property habitable and presentable. ↑
• Both Repair or replace damaged roof — A repaired or replaced roof will protect the structure and improve the property's appearance. ↑
• Both Repair or replace damaged exterior walls — A repaired or replaced exterior wall will improve the property's appearance and protect the structure. ↑
• Both Repair or replace damaged flooring — A repaired or replaced flooring will improve the property's appearance and make it habitable. ↑
• Both Repair or replace damaged interior walls/paint — A repaired or replaced interior wall and paint job will improve the property's appearance and make it habitable. ↑
• Both Repair or replace damaged windows — A repaired or replaced window will improve the property's appearance and make it habitable. ↑
• Both Repair or replace damaged foundation/structure — A repaired or replaced foundation and structure will protect the property and improve its appearance. ↑
• Both Repair or replace damaged HVAC/mechanicals — A repaired or replaced HVAC and mechanical systems will improve the property's comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape and curb appeal will improve the property's appearance and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concho Elementary District (4160)
• NCES district ID: 0402190
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $35,563
• Composite: 23.68/100
• National rank: #13246
• State rank: #340 of 501 in AZ

Livability — White Mountain Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #16914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,336

Population outlook (Apache County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 70,338 people
• By 2030: 69,279 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 66,449 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 61,904 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 47,639 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 30,279 · -57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Native American 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Apache

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 58.9% · R 40.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+33.7 2016: D+36.9 2012: D+33.9 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.96%
• Current HPI: 212.6221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2020-04-30 Sold (MLS) $67,900 WMMLS
• 2019-03-28 Sold (MLS) $25,000 WMMLS