27587 Southern Crossing Dr · Splendora, TX 77372

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2004 0.62 ac lot $95/sqft · 18% below area Est $195k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice and well maintained home out in the country sitting on over 1/2 an acre; large front porch; beautiful stone wood burning fireplace in living room; stone arch accent in dining area; open and spacious kitchen with breakfast bar and tons of cabinets; spacious utility room; washer/dryer included; split floor plan; tile floors in main living areas; back yard is fully fenced with large deck on the rear of home; two car garage with concrete driveway; tons of updates on this fabulous home!

Key facts

• Large front porch
• Built-in bookshelves
• 0.62 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STONE WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• BUILT-IN BOOKSHELVES
• ISLAND WITH BREAKFAST BAR
• ABUNDANT CABINET STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Full ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 2004; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard; Partial fencing; Shed(s)/storage; Side yard; Cleared lot in a subdivision; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Free-standing range; Microwave; Oven; Breakfast nook (First floor, 10x10)
• Bedrooms: Primary Bedroom (First floor, 14x20); Bedroom (First floor, 11x14); Bedroom (First floor, 10x14)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary Bathroom (First floor, 14x10); Bathroom (First floor, 5x12)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Crown molding; High ceilings; Laminate counters; Ceiling fans; Living/Dining room; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor, 10x6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 550 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.55%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,975
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -17.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21649 County Road 3747	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,856 (+10%)	0mo	$189,000	$102	53
13329 5th St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-10%)	11mo	$175,000	$116	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,559
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $21,461
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $364	+0% $319	+5% $274	+10% $228
Rent	-10% $175	-5% $247	+0% $319	+5% $391	+10% $463
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $360	base $319	+0.5pp $278	+1.0pp $235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   status $159,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,900 Pending 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Pending 32 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Pending 31 DOM
11. 2026-05-13
    price $159,900 843-char remark
12. 2026-04-30
    listed $164,900 Active 843-char remark
13. 2012-06-21
    soldstatus
14. 2012-06-19
    soldstatus 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Very nice and well maintained home out in the country sitting on over 1/2 an acre; large front porch; beautiful stone wood burning fireplace in living room; stone arch accent in dining area; open and spacious kitchen with breakfast bar and tons of cabinets; spacious utility room; washer/dryer included; split floor plan; tile floors in main living areas; back yard is fully fenced with large deck on the rear of home; two car garage with concrete driveway; tons of updates on this fabulous home!

15. 2012-04-16
    historical 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Very nice and well maintained home out in the country sitting on over 1/2 an acre; large front porch; beautiful stone wood burning fireplace in living room; stone arch accent in dining area; open and spacious kitchen with breakfast bar and tons of cabinets; spacious utility room; washer/dryer included; split floor plan; tile floors in main living areas; back yard is fully fenced with large deck on the rear of home; two car garage with concrete driveway; tons of updates on this fabulous home!

16. 2012-03-24
    listed $74,900 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Very nice and well maintained home out in the country sitting on over 1/2 an acre; large front porch; beautiful stone wood burning fireplace in living room; stone arch accent in dining area; open and spacious kitchen with breakfast bar and tons of cabinets; spacious utility room; washer/dryer included; split floor plan; tile floors in main living areas; back yard is fully fenced with large deck on the rear of home; two car garage with concrete driveway; tons of updates on this fabulous home!

17. 2011-06-10
    soldstatus
18. 2003-02-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,535 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$392/yr (+$33/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,744
• − Management: −$1,744
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $1,372
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$329
• After-tax cash flow: $3,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+113.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2012-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-03-24 Listed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2011-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,535 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.