3912 14th St E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1973 3,180 sqft lot Est $145k · 31% over $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy beautiful lake front view from new deck in your own back yard. 2BD/2BA Turn-key furnished just bring your suit case. Enter through sturdy window pane door. Dining room has newer floating laminate floor and opens to living room . Living room has sofabed for extra guests. Kitchen has plenty of cabinets, counter space, pantry and breakfast bar that passes through to dining room. You will enjoy the water view from the Florida room with windows going across the entire room. Perfect place to play cards, watch nature or just relax. This room also has a cedar closet. Master bedroom has 2 closets, a walk-in closet, built in drawers plus a vanity area. Master bath also has newer laminate floating floor and walk in shower. Second bedroom also has built in dresser and has a king size bed. Second bath opens to second bedroom and makes a nice guest suite and new floating laminate floor as well. Bath also opens to hall way. Large storage shed great for work shop and laundry area. You will enjoy the screened lanaiarea which opens to the new deck where you can fish or just enjoy the Florida weather. You own the land. This no pet community offers plenty of activities. Easy access to I-75, shopping, restaurants and beaches. Come live on one of the 3 lakes Tidevue hasto offer!!!

Key facts

• Lakefront living
• Open paver patio
• Community pool

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LIVING
• OPEN PAVER PATIO
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FLORIDA ROOM
• SCREENED LANAI
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Located on Gamble Lake with lakefront view (approximately 5 feet waterfront); Living area reported as 1,152 sq ft; total building area 1,680 sq ft
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Tidevue Estates Civic Organization); HOA fees required (approximately $50/month; $600 annually); Association approval required; Association amenities include pool, recreational facilities, fitness center, laundry, park, pickleball courts, shuffleboard court; Senior community; Deed restrictions; buyer approval required; golf carts allowed; street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; South facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal roof with roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.07-acre lot
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Stone countertops; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $190k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.14%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,152
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4214 15th St E	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	86
4207 13th St E	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	3mo	$123,000	$116	70
4314 12th Street Ct E	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+3%)	2mo	$105,000	$88	69
4119 13th St E	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	7mo	$109,000	$103	67
1432 41st Ave E	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,000 (-13%)	3mo	$189,000	$189	67
4547 12th Street Ct E	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+2%)	6mo	$61,000	$52	65
4111 E 13th St E	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+13%)	2mo	$260,000	$200	65
4508 14th St E	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	3mo	$110,000	$104	63
1508 45th Ave E	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+3%)	10mo	$150,000	$126	61
1206 45th Avenue Dr E	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	2mo	$135,000	$128	60
1210 44th Avenue Dr E	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	1mo	$130,000	$129	58
1208 45th Avenue Dr E	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	5mo	$65,000	$64	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $14,729
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $71,269
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,384 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $516/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	3d	13	0.39mi
4612 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,000	$2.48	24d	1	0.58mi
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	24d	1	0.62mi
4711 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	24d	1	0.64mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	3d	15	0.66mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	3d	1	0.69mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	1.36mi
1607 18th St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	916	$1,950	$2.13	24d	1	1.48mi
850 Tidewater Shores Loop #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-02-16
   listed $189,900 Active
2. 2025-08-21
   historical
3. 2025-02-21
   listed $235,000 Active
4. 2013-06-13
   soldstatus $62,500
5. 2013-06-07
   soldstatus $62,500 1285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1285 chars)

   Enjoy beautiful lake front view from new deck in your own back yard. 2BD/2BA Turn-key furnished just bring your suit case. Enter through sturdy window pane door. Dining room has newer floating laminate floor and opens to living room . Living room has sofabed for extra guests. Kitchen has plenty of cabinets, counter space, pantry and breakfast bar that passes through to dining room. You will enjoy the water view from the Florida room with windows going across the entire room. Perfect place to play cards, watch nature or just relax. This room also has a cedar closet. Master bedroom has 2 closets, a walk-in closet, built in drawers plus a vanity area. Master bath also has newer laminate floating floor and walk in shower. Second bedroom also has built in dresser and has a king size bed. Second bath opens to second bedroom and makes a nice guest suite and new floating laminate floor as well. Bath also opens to hall way. Large storage shed great for work shop and laundry area. You will enjoy the screened lanaiarea which opens to the new deck where you can fish or just enjoy the Florida weather. You own the land. This no pet community offers plenty of activities. Easy access to I-75, shopping, restaurants and beaches. Come live on one of the 3 lakes Tidevue hasto offer!!!

6. 2012-09-13
   listed $68,900 1285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1285 chars)

   Enjoy beautiful lake front view from new deck in your own back yard. 2BD/2BA Turn-key furnished just bring your suit case. Enter through sturdy window pane door. Dining room has newer floating laminate floor and opens to living room . Living room has sofabed for extra guests. Kitchen has plenty of cabinets, counter space, pantry and breakfast bar that passes through to dining room. You will enjoy the water view from the Florida room with windows going across the entire room. Perfect place to play cards, watch nature or just relax. This room also has a cedar closet. Master bedroom has 2 closets, a walk-in closet, built in drawers plus a vanity area. Master bath also has newer laminate floating floor and walk in shower. Second bedroom also has built in dresser and has a king size bed. Second bath opens to second bedroom and makes a nice guest suite and new floating laminate floor as well. Bath also opens to hall way. Large storage shed great for work shop and laundry area. You will enjoy the screened lanaiarea which opens to the new deck where you can fish or just enjoy the Florida weather. You own the land. This no pet community offers plenty of activities. Easy access to I-75, shopping, restaurants and beaches. Come live on one of the 3 lakes Tidevue hasto offer!!!

7. 2011-05-09
   soldstatus $49,000
8. 2011-05-06
   soldstatus $49,000
9. 2010-11-07
   listed $60,000
10. 2010-06-03
    listed $70,000
11. 2010-05-12
    listed $70,000
12. 2009-11-04
    listed $70,000
13. 2009-05-02
    listed $75,000
14. 2009-01-26
    historical
15. 2008-10-16
    listed $89,900
16. 2005-04-26
    soldstatus $75,000
17. 2005-04-22
    soldstatus $75,000
18. 2005-03-18
    listed $79,900
19. 1990-10-04
    soldstatus $49,000
20. 1989-07-25
    soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $516 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,060/yr (+$88/mo · 205.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$516
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,288
• − Management: −$2,288
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $5,802
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,392
• After-tax cash flow: $7,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+287.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2013-06-07 Sold (MLS) $62,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-13 Listed $68,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-06 Sold (MLS) $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-07 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-03 Listed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-12 Listed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-04 Listed $70,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-02 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-16 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-22 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-18 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $516 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.