641 Sky Camp Loop #12 · Graford, TX 76449

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily · 168 Days on market

Built 1998 566 sqft lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two-bedroom one bath home with covered front porch with a view of beautiful Possum Kingdon Lake. The back entry has ramp for easy access. This home is perfect for your weekend get a way or for full time living. This property is not deeded. The land lease is currently 7200.00 for the year which includes mowing of the yard, A dish TV package, trash and water. Boat slips available for rent by the day, month or year. Lot size is not listed in the tax records; you will need to verify with the Sky Camp owner. Also tax record shows this to be unit 7, however the Sky Camp owner says it is unit 12.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Built 1998
• Listed 167 days

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BOAT SLIPS AVAILABLE FOR RENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.6% vs local median 1.3% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 465 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 111.69%
• DSCR: 5.97
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $73,421
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.30×
• Total profit: $168,784
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $1,277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,311	-5% $1,294	+0% $1,277	+5% $1,260	+10% $1,243
Rent	-10% $1,115	-5% $1,196	+0% $1,277	+5% $1,358	+10% $1,439
Rate	-1.0pp $1,302	-0.5pp $1,289	base $1,277	+0.5pp $1,264	+1.0pp $1,251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 154 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 149 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 148 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    price $49,000 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Two-bedroom one bath home with covered front porch with a view of beautiful Possum Kingdon Lake. The back entry has ramp for easy access. This home is perfect for your weekend get a way or for full time living. This property is not deeded. The land lease is currently 7200.00 for the year which includes mowing of the yard, A dish TV package, trash and water. Boat slips available for rent by the day, month or year. Lot size is not listed in the tax records; you will need to verify with the Sky Camp owner. Also tax record shows this to be unit 7, however the Sky Camp owner says it is unit 12.

18. 2026-01-01
    listed $53,000 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Two-bedroom one bath home with covered front porch with a view of beautiful Possum Kingdon Lake. The back entry has ramp for easy access. This home is perfect for your weekend get a way or for full time living. This property is not deeded. The land lease is currently 7200.00 for the year which includes mowing of the yard, A dish TV package, trash and water. Boat slips available for rent by the day, month or year. Lot size is not listed in the tax records; you will need to verify with the Sky Camp owner. Also tax record shows this to be unit 7, however the Sky Camp owner says it is unit 12.

19. 2025-12-31
    historical
20. 2025-09-12
    price $55,000
21. 2025-06-29
    price $59,000
22. 2025-05-19
    price $65,000
23. 2025-03-11
    price $69,500
24. 2025-01-27
    listed $73,500 Active
25. 2017-07-10
    historical
26. 2017-04-02
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $15,464
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,711
• After-tax cash flow: $11,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $49,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $53,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $55,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $59,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $69,500 NTREIS
• 2025-01-27 Listed $73,500 NTREIS
• 2017-07-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-04-02 Listed $50,000 NTREIS