Dogwood II Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$326,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,287 sqft · SingleFamily · 791 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Dogwood II floorplan, a two-story design in our Smart Series lineup. This floorplan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,284-2,332 square feet of functional living space. With curated design packages and desirable structural options to choose from, look no further than the Dogwood II plan for your dream home!

Key facts

• Two-story design
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 790 days

Tags

• TWO-STORY DESIGN
• CURATED DESIGN PACKAGES
• DESIRABLE STRUCTURAL OPTIONS

🏗️ New construction. The $326,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $505,957.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $327k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.4% in Lavon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 750 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 791 days — a 12% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $282,224 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 791 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.73%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $505,957
• List price: $326,990
• Delta: -35.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
726 Grand Dale Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,184 (-4%)	0mo	$348,990	$160	85
762 Grand Dale Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,184 (-4%)	2mo	$349,990	$160	78
9920 County Road 540	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,123 (-7%)	1mo	$459,000	$216	76
724 Grand Dale Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,029 (-11%)	0mo	$336,990	$166	74
746 Grand Dale Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,105 (-8%)	0mo	$374,990	$178	74
708 Tawny TURN	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,186 (-4%)	1mo	$394,990	$181	73
903 Sleepy Landing Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,448 (+7%)	0mo	$379,990	$155	66
205 Bright Alcove Ct	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,466 (+8%)	1mo	$379,990	$154	66
762 Heart Leaf Ln	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,530 (+11%)	2mo	$374,675	$148	64
1066 Dewy Lake Pl	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,448 (+7%)	2mo	$409,990	$167	55
1195 Little Hills Way	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,131 (-7%)	0mo	$344,990	$162	52
639 Dove Haven Way	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,527 (+10%)	2mo	$387,990	$154	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-162,639
• Equity at exit: $75,440

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-245,358
• Equity at exit: $43,746

Cash invested: $141,668 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 165 active · 41 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.3 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $369,990 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 97 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +32.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 750
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,653
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$632 /mo · $7,589/yr
• Insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $-1,267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,426

Max offer price $322,622

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-917	-5% $-1,092	+0% $-1,267	+5% $-1,442	+10% $-1,617
Rent	-10% $-1,490	-5% $-1,378	+0% $-1,267	+5% $-1,156	+10% $-1,044
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,012	-0.5pp $-1,138	base $-1,267	+0.5pp $-1,398	+1.0pp $-1,531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,489
• Closing costs: $15,179
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	93d	1	0.22mi
257 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,500	$1.16	42d	1	0.41mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,500	$1.04	23d	1	0.43mi
252 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2957	$3,175	$1.07	52d	1	0.44mi
252 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2957	$3,175	$1.07	48d	1	0.44mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,400	$1.25	48d	1	0.55mi
344 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,600	$1.10	42d	1	0.58mi
402 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2114	$2,295	$1.09	1d	1	0.58mi
373 Braves Way Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	3310	$2,800	$0.85	0d	1	0.65mi
304 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2900	$2,800	$0.97	4d	1	0.68mi
253 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2687	$2,600	$0.97	93d	1	0.68mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	42d	1	0.71mi
219 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2900	$2,900	$1.00	38d	1	0.74mi
179 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,495	$1.38	19d	1	0.75mi
566 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2447	$2,850	$1.16	0d	1	0.81mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	93d	1	0.81mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	73d	1	0.85mi
117 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2356	$2,600	$1.10	73d	1	0.85mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,095	$1.31	12d	1	0.87mi
383 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,500	$1.01	93d	1	0.91mi
361 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,295	$0.93	93d	1	0.92mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	93d	1	0.93mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	93d	1	0.93mi
239 Tallgrass Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2394	$3,500	$1.46	93d	1	0.97mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	93d	1	0.98mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	73d	1	1.11mi
242 Maverick Ct Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2250	$2,050	$0.91	19d	1	1.16mi
223 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,281	$1.07	21d	1	1.19mi
204 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2419	$3,195	$1.32	1d	1	1.22mi
204 Rosewood Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2419	$3,195	$1.32	0d	1	1.22mi
584 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2177	$2,050	$0.94	4d	1	1.40mi
415 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2850	$2,690	$0.94	16d	1	1.41mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,099	$1.16	1d	1	1.41mi
400 Lake Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,000	$1.10	25d	1	1.43mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	93d	1	1.45mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	93d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $326,990 Active 791 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $326,990 Active 789 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $326,990 Active 788 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $326,990 Active 787 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $326,990 Active 786 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $326,990 Active 783 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $326,990 Active 781 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $326,990 Active 780 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $326,990 Active 778 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 776 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $326,990 Active 775 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $326,990 Active 774 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $326,990 Active 773 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $326,990 Active 772 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 770 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 769 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $326,990 Active 768 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $326,990 Active 767 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $326,990 Active 766 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 765 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 764 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $326,990 Active 763 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $326,990 Active 762 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $326,990 Active 761 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $326,990 Active 759 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $326,990 Active 758 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $326,990 Active 757 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $326,990 Active 756 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $326,990 Active 755 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $326,990 Active 754 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $326,990 Active 753 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $326,990 Active 752 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $326,990 Active 751 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $326,990 Active 750 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $326,990 Active 748 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 746 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $326,990 Active 744 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $326,990 Active 743 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 740 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $326,990 Active 739 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $326,990 Active 738 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $326,990 Active 737 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 735 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 734 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $326,990 Active 731 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $326,990 Active 730 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $326,990 Active 729 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $326,990 Active 726 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $326,990 Active 725 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $326,990 Active 724 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,341
• − Property taxes: −$7,589
• − Insurance: −$2,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,709
• − Management: −$2,709
• − Depreciation: −$14,719
• Taxable loss: −$24,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,435–$34,305 screening

The Dogwood II floorplan is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures throughout — Enhances interior aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $326,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $325,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $324,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $367,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-08 Listed $377,990 Zillow