4099 Sumrall Ln · Wildwood, TX 77663

$165,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 724 Days on market

Built 1958 Poor condition 10 ac lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

10 acres of unrestricted land available in Village Mills with a fenced-in area, perfect for your horses or livestock. There are many options for this property! Currently there is a home with four bedrooms, two baths, with 1980 SF. Onsite- two metal storage buildings (one for the well pump) Private wells and septic systems are in place. Beautiful land with mature trees, partially cleared and fenced. NEW SURVEY INCLUDED! Call today for more info or to schedule a viewing!

Key facts

• Fenced in area
• 10 acres of land
• Mature trees

Tags

• 10 ACRES OF LAND
• FENCED IN AREA
• METAL STORAGE BUILDINGS
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.0% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#855 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Warren ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 724 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 724 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.77%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $12,795
• Equity at exit: $56,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $54,883
• Equity at exit: $75,673

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77663

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,592

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $239	-5% $192	+0% $145	+5% $98	+10% $52
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $75	+0% $145	+5% $215	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $187	base $145	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 724 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 723 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 722 DOM
4. 2025-06-23
   price $165,000 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   10 acres of land available in Village Mills (HARDIN COUNTY) with fenced-in area perfect for your horses or livestock. This diamond in the rough home is ready to be renovated! Home includes four bedrooms, two baths, with 1980 square feet. Vinyl and carpet throughout. Covered porch with laundry - washer/dryer included in sale. Two metal storage buildings on site (one for the well pump) Private well and septic systems are in place. Beautiful land with mature trees, partially cleared and fenced. SURVEY INCLUDED - COMPLETED IN 2024. Call today for more info or to schedule a viewing!

5. 2025-06-23
   price $165,000 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   10 acres of land available in Village Mills (HARDIN COUNTY) with fenced-in area perfect for your horses or livestock. This diamond in the rough home is ready to be renovated! Home includes four bedrooms, two baths, with 1980 square feet. Vinyl and carpet throughout. Covered porch with laundry - washer/dryer included in sale. Two metal storage buildings on site (one for the well pump) Private well and septic systems are in place. Beautiful land with mature trees, partially cleared and fenced. SURVEY INCLUDED - COMPLETED IN 2024. Call today for more info or to schedule a viewing!

6. 2025-02-23
   price $185,000 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   10 acres of land available in Village Mills (HARDIN COUNTY) with fenced-in area perfect for your horses or livestock. This diamond in the rough home is ready to be renovated! Home includes four bedrooms, two baths, with 1980 square feet. Vinyl and carpet throughout. Covered porch with laundry - washer/dryer included in sale. Two metal storage buildings on site (one for the well pump) Private well and septic systems are in place. Beautiful land with mature trees, partially cleared and fenced. SURVEY INCLUDED - COMPLETED IN 2024. Call today for more info or to schedule a viewing!

7. 2025-02-23
   price $185,000 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   10 acres of land available in Village Mills (HARDIN COUNTY) with fenced-in area perfect for your horses or livestock. This diamond in the rough home is ready to be renovated! Home includes four bedrooms, two baths, with 1980 square feet. Vinyl and carpet throughout. Covered porch with laundry - washer/dryer included in sale. Two metal storage buildings on site (one for the well pump) Private well and septic systems are in place. Beautiful land with mature trees, partially cleared and fenced. SURVEY INCLUDED - COMPLETED IN 2024. Call today for more info or to schedule a viewing!

8. 2024-08-06
   price $199,900 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   10 acres of unrestricted land available in Village Mills with a fenced-in area, perfect for your horses or livestock. There are many options for this property! Currently there is a home with four bedrooms, two baths, with 1980 SF. Onsite- two metal storage buildings (one for the well pump) Private wells and septic systems are in place. Beautiful land with mature trees, partially cleared and fenced. NEW SURVEY INCLUDED! Call today for more info or to schedule a viewing!

9. 2024-08-06
   price $199,900 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   10 acres of unrestricted land available in Village Mills with a fenced-in area, perfect for your horses or livestock. There are many options for this property! Currently there is a home with four bedrooms, two baths, with 1980 SF. Onsite- two metal storage buildings (one for the well pump) Private wells and septic systems are in place. Beautiful land with mature trees, partially cleared and fenced. NEW SURVEY INCLUDED! Call today for more info or to schedule a viewing!

10. 2024-07-26
    listed $225,000 Active 473-char remark

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    10 acres of unrestricted land available in Village Mills with a fenced-in area, perfect for your horses or livestock. There are many options for this property! Currently there is a home with four bedrooms, two baths, with 1980 SF. Onsite- two metal storage buildings (one for the well pump) Private wells and septic systems are in place. Beautiful land with mature trees, partially cleared and fenced. NEW SURVEY INCLUDED! Call today for more info or to schedule a viewing!

11. 2024-06-07
    listed $225,000 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    10 acres of land available in Village Mills (HARDIN COUNTY) with fenced-in area perfect for your horses or livestock. This diamond in the rough home is ready to be renovated! Home includes four bedrooms, two baths, with 1980 square feet. Vinyl and carpet throughout. Covered porch with laundry - washer/dryer included in sale. Two metal storage buildings on site (one for the well pump) Private well and septic systems are in place. Beautiful land with mature trees, partially cleared and fenced. SURVEY INCLUDED - COMPLETED IN 2024. Call today for more info or to schedule a viewing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,885 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,885 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$204
• After-tax cash flow: $1,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation and maintenance, including repairs to the fencing, exterior, foundation, roof, and landscaping. Significant improvements can substantially increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Repairs flagged

• Major fencing — Dilapidated and overgrown with vegetation.
• Major house exterior — Weathered and in need of paint.
• Major foundation — Appears uneven and in need of repair.
• Major roof — Appears aged and may need replacement.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and requires clearing.
• Major storage buildings — In disrepair and need maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Aesthetic improvements can enhance both resale and rental value.
• Both exterior painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both roof replacement — A new roof can significantly increase the home's value and reduce maintenance costs.
• Both foundation repair — A stable foundation is crucial for the home's structural integrity and value.
• Both storage building maintenance — Well-maintained storage buildings can add to the property's functionality and value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Aesthetic improvements can enhance both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
fencing · Dilapidated and overgrown with vegetation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
house exterior · Weathered and in need of paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation · Appears uneven and in need of repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Appears aged and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and requires clearing.	Major	$15,000–50,000
storage buildings · In disrepair and need maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Aesthetic improvements can enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both exterior painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both roof replacement — A new roof can significantly increase the home's value and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both foundation repair — A stable foundation is crucial for the home's structural integrity and value. ↑
• Both storage building maintenance — Well-maintained storage buildings can add to the property's functionality and value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Aesthetic improvements can enhance both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844580
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,575
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5059
• State rank: #378 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #855
• US rank: #15381

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 309

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Polish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Current HPI: 103.9751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $165,000 BBOR
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $165,000 BBOR
• 2025-02-23 Price Changed $185,000 BBOR
• 2025-02-23 Price Changed $185,000 BBOR
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $199,900 BBOR
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $199,900 BBOR
• 2024-07-26 Listed $225,000 BBOR
• 2024-06-07 Listed $225,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+19.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,885 · +19.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.