Geneva Plan · Surprise, AZ 85387

$410,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · SingleFamily · 348 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Geneva - Refined Ranch-Style Living Experience timeless design and modern comfort in the Geneva, a beautifully crafted single-story home that blends architectural charm with contemporary elegance. This floor plan is very popular and featured at many communities. Choose Your Elevation Style: Elevation A- Spanish: Warm tones, arched details, and classic stucco finishes Elevation B- Modern Farmhouse: Crisp lines, board-and-batten accents, and inviting curb appeal Elevation C- Modern Prairie: Clean geometry, low-pitched rooflines, and earthy textures Thoughtful Layout & Living Spaces Enter into a welcoming foyer that opens to Bedrooms 3 and 4, thoughtfully placed with a shared full bathroom and a convenient linen closet between them. Just off the hallway, a functional mud room with an optional drop zone hall tree provides direct access from the two-bay garage and leads to Bedroom 2, which features its own ensuite bathroom with a single vanity. The open-concept kitchen is designed for both everyday living and entertaining. It includes a spacious island, walk-in pantry, and seamless flow into the dining area and great room. The great room connects effortlessly to the laundry room and the entrance to the private primary suite, creating a layout that is both practical and inviting. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with a spa-inspired bathroom, featuring a sleek walk-in shower with a built-in seat or optional soaking tub, and a generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 347 days

Tags

• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LOOP 303
• EASY ACCESS TO RESTAURANTS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• ACCESS TO CARDINALS STADIUM
• MILES OF HIKING TRAILS
• MOUNTAIN BIKING TRAILS

🏗️ New construction. The $410,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $434,995.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $411k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (39.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (39.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Festival Foothills Elementary School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #308 of 1,109 statewide, top 29%, 314 students, 31% FRL); Vulture Peak Middle School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 162 students, 51% FRL); Wickenburg High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 460 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1869 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 348 days — a 12% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $250,211 (39.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 348 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.14%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,995
• List price: $410,990
• Delta: -5.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23037 W Potter Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,216 (+7%)	1mo	$460,000	$208	75
20738 N 230th Ln	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,247 (+8%)	1mo	$420,000	$187	73
20640 N 226th Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,113 (+2%)	1mo	$434,990	$206	68
22875 W Monona Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,866 (-10%)	0mo	$419,715	$225	59
20268 N 226th Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,342 (+13%)	1mo	$468,705	$200	53
22657 W Pontiac Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,342 (+13%)	0mo	$466,990	$199	52
22908 W Monona Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-14%)	1mo	$407,000	$229	52
22863 W Monona Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-14%)	1mo	$409,000	$230	50
22615 W Pontiac Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,342 (+13%)	0mo	$399,000	$170	50
22630 W Pontiac Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-11%)	1mo	$420,000	$228	44
22600 W Pontiac Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-11%)	1mo	$425,990	$231	42
22596 W Pontiac Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-11%)	0mo	$381,000	$207	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-141,076
• Equity at exit: $64,859

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.86×
• Total profit: $-227,041
• Equity at exit: $37,610

Cash invested: $121,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 60 active · 50 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.1 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $427,990 ($211/sqft)
• Median days on market: 129 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85387

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 1869
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$544 /mo · $6,525/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-1,029

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,805

Max offer price $286,027

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-729	-5% $-879	+0% $-1,029	+5% $-1,180	+10% $-1,330
Rent	-10% $-1,227	-5% $-1,128	+0% $-1,029	+5% $-931	+10% $-832
Rate	-1.0pp $-810	-0.5pp $-919	base $-1,029	+0.5pp $-1,142	+1.0pp $-1,257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,749
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23011 W Potter Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2079	$2,350	$1.13	10d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $410,990 Active 348 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $410,990 Active 347 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $410,990 Active 346 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $410,990 Active 345 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $410,990 Active 344 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $410,990 Active 343 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $410,990 Active 342 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $410,990 Active 341 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $410,990 Active 340 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $410,990 Active 339 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $410,990 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $410,990 Active 337 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $410,990 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $410,990 Active 335 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $410,990 Active 329 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $410,990 Active 328 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $410,990 Active 327 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $410,990 Active 324 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $410,990 Active 323 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $410,990 Active 322 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $410,990 Active 321 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $410,990 Active 320 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $410,990 Active 318 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $410,990 Active 317 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $410,990 Active 316 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $410,990 Active 315 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $410,990 Active 314 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $410,990 Active 313 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $410,990 Active 312 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $410,990 Active 311 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $410,990 Active 310 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $410,990 Active 309 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $410,990 Active 308 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $410,990 Active 307 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $410,990 Active 306 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $410,990 Active 305 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $410,990 Active 304 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $410,990 Active 303 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $410,990 Active 302 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $410,990 Active 301 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $410,990 Active 299 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $410,990 Active 298 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $410,990 Active 297 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $410,990 Active 296 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $410,990 Active 293 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $410,990 Active 292 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $410,990 Active 291 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $410,990 Active 290 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $410,990 Active 288 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $410,990 Active 286 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,366
• − Property taxes: −$6,525
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − Depreciation: −$12,654
• Taxable loss: −$20,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,395–$31,185 screening

This single-story home in Surprise, AZ, is in excellent condition with a good exterior and interior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Festival Foothills Elementary School D- AZ #308/1,109 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Vulture Peak Middle School F AZ #84/218 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Wickenburg High School F AZ #120/381 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $98,757
• Rent vs Own: 5.0% rent · 95.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.16%
• Current HPI: 263.1123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $410,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-11 Listed $415,990 Zillow