114 County Road 4266 · Old River-Winfree, TX 77535

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1988 0.55 ac lot Est $256k · 49% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom, 2 bath home with open floor plan, island kitchen, detached 2 car garage with additional carport space, fenced yard on a 0.55 acre lot. HOMEGENIUS REAL ESTATE LLC IS THE CO BROKER AGENT.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fenced yard
• Island kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Detached carport (2 spaces); 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1988; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric, heat pump); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Ceiling fans; One fireplace; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.8% in Old River-Winfree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kimmie M Brown El (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 845 students, 82% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.86%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,840
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 Oak Chase Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+2%)	6mo	$261,100	$164	72
514 Oak Chase Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+2%)	7mo	$261,500	$164	72
535 County Road 4261	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+0%)	16mo	$165,000	$105	70
24 County Road 429	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	5mo	$200,000	$137	64
500 Oak Chase Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-10%)	5mo	$239,900	$171	60
511 County Road 4321	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+8%)	23mo	$235,000	$140	40
39 County Road 427 TX	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-11%)	21mo	$260,000	$187	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,856
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $19,038
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,274/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $305	+0% $269	+5% $232	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $205	+0% $269	+5% $332	+10% $396
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $302	base $269	+0.5pp $235	+1.0pp $201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $129,900 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $139,900
15. 2026-04-16
    price $149,900
16. 2026-04-07
    price $154,900
17. 2026-03-16
    status Active
18. 2026-02-04
    historical
19. 2026-01-05
    price $164,900
20. 2025-11-19
    status Active
21. 2025-11-16
    historical
22. 2025-11-14
    listed $169,900 Active
23. 2025-03-04
    historical
24. 2024-08-13
    price $185,000
25. 2024-05-16
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,274 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,274 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,274
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $1,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$315
• After-tax cash flow: $2,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Old River-Winfree

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-13 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-16 Listed $200,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,274 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.