511 Lockwood St · Chesaning, MI 48616

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1900 8,712 sqft lot Est $119k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this 4 bedroom, 1 bath home in the Village of Chesaning. New roof and vinyl siding 3 years ago. Large main bedroom with fireplace on the first floor. 2 car attached garage and spacious backyard. Open floor plan with kitchen blending right into the living area. You are within walking distance to downtown Chesaning. Seller is including a 1 year home warranty for buyers peace of mind. Schedule your private tour today.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious backyard
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALKING DISTANCE TO DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has home warranty

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with electricity and garage door opener
• Utilities: Natural gas heat (forced air); Public water; Public sanitary sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 1 1/2-story home; Built in 1900; Entry-level main floor
• Construction: Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Aluminum exterior; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on entry level (13 x 9)
• Bedrooms: Entry-level bedroom (12 x 11); Upper-level bedroom (12 x 8); Upper-level bedroom (approx. 12 wide)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (entry level, approx. 9 x 5)
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (1 total)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on entry level (12 x 9)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($390/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#220 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Chesaning Union Schools (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #153 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 27 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $125k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $106,295 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.12%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,028
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
829 Brady St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+3%)	2mo	$42,468	$38	72
520 South St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,034 (-5%)	18mo	$145,000	$140	66
805 S Line St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-7%)	21mo	$110,000	$108	61
1010 W Broad St	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (+2%)	19mo	$122,500	$110	53
122 N Washington St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,172 (+7%)	15mo	$148,000	$126	53
124 N Line St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,244 (+14%)	10mo	$135,000	$109	51
623 S Main Rd	0.63mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,144 (+5%)	10mo	$125,000	$109	47
528 N Line St	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,131 (+4%)	18mo	$106,000	$94	44
309 N 1st St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	12mo	$200,000	$167	44
409 Abingdon St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,225 (+12%)	11mo	$160,000	$131	34
811 E Liberty St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,208 (+11%)	12mo	$92,000	$76	33
618 N 1st St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+14%)	3mo	$121,000	$97	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-18,187
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-13,246
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48616

• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,202/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $68	+0% $33	+5% $-3	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $-9	+0% $33	+5% $74	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $64	base $33	+0.5pp $0	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   remarks 429-char remark
3. 2026-06-12
   days on marketlisting id $124,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   listed $124,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,202 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,563 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$361/yr (+$30/mo · 30.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,202
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$418
• After-tax cash flow: $808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesaning Union Schools
• NCES district ID: 2609150
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,955
• Composite: 37.82/100
• National rank: #4333
• State rank: #153 of 540 in MI

Livability — Chesaning

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #5464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesaning, MI
• City population: 7,702
• Population (ZIP): 7,702

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.12%
• Current HPI: 199.0192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+85.0% since first listed

61 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-08-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-22 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-08-22 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-08-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-17 Listed $104,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-17 Listed $104,900 REALCOMP
• 2020-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2020-03-11 Sold (MLS) $62,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-03-11 Sold (MLS) $62,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-03-11 Sold (MLS) $62,500 REALCOMP
• 2020-03-11 Sold (MLS) $62,500 REALCOMP
• 2020-02-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-02-11 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-02-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-02-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-22 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2020-01-22 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2020-01-22 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-22 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-16 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-01-16 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-01-16 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-16 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-08 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2019-08-08 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2019-08-08 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-08 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2019-08-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2019-08-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-06-03 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2019-06-03 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2019-06-03 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-06-03 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-05-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2019-05-21 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2019-05-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-05-21 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-05-16 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-05-16 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-05-16 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2019-05-16 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) $64,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) $64,500 REALCOMP
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) $64,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) $64,500 REALCOMP
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) $64,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-09-28 Sold (MLS) $64,500 REALCOMP
• 2007-09-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-09-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-08-14 Listed $67,500 REALCOMP
• 2007-08-14 Listed $67,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-08-14 Listed $67,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-08-14 Listed $67,500 REALCOMP
• 2007-08-11 Listed $67,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-08-11 Listed $67,500 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,202 · -40.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.