Victoria Plan · Jackson, PA 16033

$500,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,314 sqft · Townhouse · 541 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Victoria townhome brings together the ease of main-level living with the added space and flexibility of a thoughtfully designed second floor. The open-concept layout features a large kitchen island that flows into the family room-perfect for everyday living or entertaining. A convenient powder room near the entry keeps your private areas tucked away while ensuring guests feel at home. Upstairs, two oversized bedrooms with charming dormer windows offer cozy nooks ideal for reading or studying. A versatile loft space adds even more flexibility-use it as a second family room, home office, or additional guest space tailored to your needs. Outside, a covered patio invites you to relax and unwind, while included lawn care and snow removal let you enjoy a truly low-maintenance lifestyle. With its smart design and timeless appeal, the Victoria is a home that works beautifully for how you live today.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Oversized bedrooms
• Versatile loft space

Tags

• MAIN-LEVEL LIVING
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• POWDER ROOM
• OVERSIZED BEDROOMS
• DORMER WINDOWS
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $500,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $518,871.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $500k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-998 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $375k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Seneca Valley SD (rural): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #73 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ehrman Crest El Sch (math 59% / reading 69%, grade B, #289 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 758 students, 19% FRL); Ryan Gloyer Ms (math 32% / reading 64%, grade C-, #153 of 512 statewide, top 30%, 1,123 students, 21% FRL); Seneca Valley Hs (math 71% / reading 75%, grade B+, #35 of 437 statewide, top 8%, 2,307 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butler County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 541 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $327,628 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 541 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.24%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $518,871
• List price: $500,000
• Delta: -3.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1124 Autumn Woods Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	2,314 (0%)	7mo	$515,000	$223	84
1144 Autumn Woods Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	2,314 (0%)	12mo	$522,000	$226	78
310 Riva Ridge Dr	0.37mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,892 (+25%)	1mo	$717,500	$248	46
115 Timberview Trl	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,195 (-5%)	14mo	$607,000	$277	40
578 Pattison Street Ext	1.10mi	3/2.5	1,836 (-21%)	3mo	$570,000	$310	38
215 Gate Dancer Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,884 (+25%)	5mo	$721,900	$250	38
302 Ashbury Ct	1.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,616 (+13%)	0mo	$680,000	$260	36
106 Moyer Hill Dr	1.50mi	3/2.5	1,912 (-17%)	7mo	$367,000	$192	34
7717 Franklin Rd	1.04mi	3/3.5	1,786 (-23%)	4mo	$790,000	$442	33
8045 Maureen Dr	1.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,060 (-11%)	15mo	$444,900	$216	29
91 Celtic Ash Ct	0.68mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,708 (+17%)	12mo	$585,000	$216	24
252 Elmhurst Cir	1.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,760 (+19%)	13mo	$628,000	$228	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-147,564
• Equity at exit: $77,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-210,105
• Equity at exit: $44,862

Cash invested: $145,284 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $572,400 ($276/sqft)
• Median days on market: 381 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -18.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 16033

• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,721
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$649 /mo · $7,783/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-998

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,539

Max offer price $374,525

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-639	-5% $-818	+0% $-998	+5% $-1,177	+10% $-1,356
Rent	-10% $-1,256	-5% $-1,127	+0% $-998	+5% $-868	+10% $-739
Rate	-1.0pp $-736	-0.5pp $-866	base $-998	+0.5pp $-1,132	+1.0pp $-1,269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,718
• Closing costs: $15,566
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Middleground Pl Cranberry Twp, PA	4.0	3.5	2416	$3,500	$1.45	108d	1	0.64mi
117 Moyer Hill Dr Cranberry Township, PA	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,595	$1.53	128d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $500,000 Active 541 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $500,000 Active 540 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $500,000 Active 539 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $500,000 Active 538 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $500,000 Active 537 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $500,000 Active 535 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $500,000 Active 534 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $500,000 Active 533 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $500,000 Active 532 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $500,000 Active 531 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $500,000 Active 530 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $500,000 Active 529 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $500,000 Active 528 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $500,000 Active 527 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $500,000 Active 526 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $500,000 Active 525 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $500,000 Active 524 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $500,000 Active 523 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $500,000 Active 522 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $500,000 Active 521 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $500,000 Active 520 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $500,000 Active 519 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $500,000 Active 518 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $500,000 Active 517 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $500,000 Active 516 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $500,000 Active 515 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $500,000 Active 514 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $500,000 Active 513 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $500,000 Active 512 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $500,000 Active 511 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $500,000 Active 510 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $500,000 Active 509 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $500,000 Active 508 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $500,000 Active 507 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $500,000 Active 506 DOM
36. 2026-10-02
    days on market $500,000 Active 504 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $500,000 Active 503 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $500,000 Active 502 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $500,000 Active 501 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $500,000 Active 500 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $500,000 Active 499 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $500,000 Active 497 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $500,000 Active 496 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $500,000 Active 495 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $500,000 Active 494 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $500,000 Active 493 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $500,000 Active 492 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $500,000 Active 491 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $500,000 Active 490 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $500,000 Active 489 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,065
• − Property taxes: −$7,783
• − Insurance: −$2,594
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,145
• − Management: −$3,145
• − Depreciation: −$15,094
• Taxable loss: −$21,512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,163
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This multi-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. Potential buyers/renters would appreciate updates to the exterior, flooring, and kitchen appliances.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — New flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ehrman Crest El Sch B PA #289/1,518 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Ehrman Crest Ms C PA #109/512 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Seneca Valley Hs B+ PA #35/437 Nat'l #1,820/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seneca Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4222440
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $80,381
• Composite: 51.84/100
• National rank: #1666
• State rank: #73 of 539 in PA

Livability — Jackson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Butler · 190,777 people
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,934
• Household income: $100,606
• Rent vs Own: 22.5% rent · 77.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

---

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 190,777 people
• By 2030: 191,476 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 189,474 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 182,050 · -4.6%
• By 2075: 159,526 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 129,028 · -32.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.5% · R 65.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.54%
• Current HPI: 154.4316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $500,000 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $510,000 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-13 Listed $497,500 Zillow