9738 Gulfstream Dr · Conroe, TX 77303

$270,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2008 5,401 sqft lot $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a quiet, well-kept Conroe neighborhood, this spacious 5-bedroom home offers the room you need at a price point that makes sense. The floor plan features the primary bedroom downstairs, with four secondary bedrooms and a game room upstairs—ideal for those needing extra space for work, guests, hobbies, or everyday living. The kitchen and living areas offer a comfortable flow, while the fenced backyard provides plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. A large covered patio creates a great space for relaxing or entertaining, and the raised garden beds are perfect for growing flowers, herbs, or vegetables. Tucked inside a peaceful development, this home offers a quiet residential s

Key facts

• Raised garden beds
• Large covered patio
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS
• QUIET RESIDENTIAL SETTING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-45

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sterling Place HOA with annual fee of $350

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2008; Concrete road access
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (16x11); Four additional bedrooms on second floor (14x12, 12x10, 11x11, 11x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom on first floor (9x9)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Pots & pan drawers; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 34% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,577 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-57,282
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-84,947
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$424 /mo · $5,091/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,508

Max offer price $251,487

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10005 Sterling Place Dr Conroe, TX	5.0	2.5	2305	$2,250	$0.98	1d	1	0.28mi
11085 Pine Acre Trails Blvd Conroe, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1458	$1,799	$1.23	4d	1	1.25mi
10594 Rustling Oaks Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,350	$0.92	43d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $270,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $270,000 Active
15. 2018-05-22
    soldstatus
16. 2010-07-03
    historical
17. 2010-06-08
    listed $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,091 · $424/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,091 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$5,091
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,281
• − Management: −$2,281
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,397
• After-tax cash flow: $139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+74.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2018-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-07-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-06-08 Listed $155,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,091 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.