16804 Orange Dr · McAllen, TX 78541

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2000 0.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious half-acre lot in the county just north of Edinburg, offering the perfect blend of peace, privacy, and potential. The home features a comfortable layout with plenty of natural light and a welcoming feel throughout. Outside, the large yard is a standout feature—ideal for entertaining, gardening, adding a workshop, or simply enjoying wide-open space with no city restrictions. Whether you’re looking for a quiet place to call home or a property with room to grow, this one offers endless possibilities.

Key facts

• Half-acre lot
• Large yard
• No city restrictions

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• LARGE YARD
• NO CITY RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in McAllen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: R C Flores-Mark A Zapata El (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 521 students, 80% FRL); Elias Longoria Sr Middle (math 16% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 804 students, 82% FRL); Edinburg North H S (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,672 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 62% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 524 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-10,830
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-5,991
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78541

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 524
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $896 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,014/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $788

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $113	+0% $86	+5% $59	+10% $32
Rent	-10% $15	-5% $50	+0% $86	+5% $121	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $110	base $86	+0.5pp $61	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $95,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-02-05
    listed $110,000 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    This cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious half-acre lot in the county just north of Edinburg, offering the perfect blend of peace, privacy, and potential. The home features a comfortable layout with plenty of natural light and a welcoming feel throughout. Outside, the large yard is a standout feature—ideal for entertaining, gardening, adding a workshop, or simply enjoying wide-open space with no city restrictions. Whether you’re looking for a quiet place to call home or a property with room to grow, this one offers endless possibilities.

18. 2022-01-21
    soldstatus
19. 2007-03-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,014 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$725/yr (+$60/mo · 71.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,014
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$860
• − Management: −$860
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$541
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$130
• After-tax cash flow: $1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,985
• Composite: 22.42/100
• National rank: #8114
• State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

Livability — McAllen

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,710
• Household income: $52,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1963.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 49% White 8% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 73% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.63%
• Current HPI: 215.1057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.01%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $110,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,014 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.