2621 Pebble Dr · Erie, PA 16508

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1966 0.29 ac lot ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just freshly updated with paint, new carpeting, appliances, gutters and more. This property is spread across three city parcels and includes a detached garage. Additional storage on the property for convenience. Great central location close to so many amenities from grocery stores, gym, restaurants, etc. Immediately ready for a new owner! Seller financing is an option!

Key facts

• New carpeting
• Central location
• Freshly updated

Tags

• FRESHLY UPDATED
• NEW CARPETING
• DETACHED GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Smoke detector(s); 8 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.01%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-2,802
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $14,584
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16508

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $993/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	43d	1	0.51mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	43d	1	0.74mi
2619 Liberty St Apt 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	44d	1	0.76mi
1257 W 6th St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 371-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    listed $99,000 Active
20. 1996-08-01
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $993 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 28.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$993
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,034
• − Management: −$1,034
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$227
• After-tax cash flow: $2,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,958
• Household income: $56,391
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.05%
• Current HPI: 250.759
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $99,000 GEBOR
• 1996-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $993 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.