314 E Elizabeth St · New Castle, PA 16105

$28,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1920

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A perfect empty lot to build a home is a spacious, level piece of land with open views and plenty of natural light. It & acirc; & euro; & trade; s surrounded by a mix of privacy and nature & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; like trees or gentle hills & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; but still has easy access to main roads and utilities. The soil is solid for building, drainage is good, and there & acirc; & euro; & trade; s enough space for extras like a driveway, garage, garden, or pool. Ideally, it & acirc; & euro; & trade; s in a quiet, safe area with room to grow, giving you total freedom to design the home exactly how you want.

Key facts

• Open views
• Spacious level land
• Natural light

Tags

• SPACIOUS LEVEL LAND
• OPEN VIEWS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• EASY ACCESS TO MAIN ROADS
• GOOD DRAINAGE
• SOLID SOIL FOR BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $28k).
• Cap rate 52.1% vs local median 8.9% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• New Castle Area SD (town): math 9% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #519 of 539 in PA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $194 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $840 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $24k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $28,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 52.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 163.71%
• DSCR: 8.28
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,740
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
211 E Northview Ave	0.17mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,244 (+1%)	6mo	$110,000	$88	79
313 Norwood Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+9%)	2mo	$147,000	$109	72
232 E Elizabeth St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+8%)	8mo	$191,000	$144	72
419 E Northview Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,352 (+10%)	5mo	$97,500	$72	71
231 E Meyer Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+10%)	4mo	$125,000	$92	70
212 E Meyer Ave	0.19mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,316 (+7%)	0mo	$138,000	$105	69
228 E Sheridan Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,288 (+4%)	2mo	$140,000	$109	66
603 E Edgewood Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-9%)	6mo	$186,000	$166	58
511 E Garfield Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,142 (-8%)	2mo	$160,000	$140	54
11 Manor Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,149 (-7%)	8mo	$220,000	$191	53
142 E Garfield Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,359 (+10%)	3mo	$150,000	$110	53
1406 N Mercer St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,094 (-11%)	9mo	$133,000	$122	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.11×
• Total profit: $63,595
• Equity at exit: $4,175

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.26×
• Total profit: $143,133
• Equity at exit: $2,421

Cash invested: $7,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16105

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$147
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $133/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $215

Max offer price $28,000

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,085	-5% $1,078	+0% $1,070	+5% $1,062	+10% $1,054
Rent	-10% $946	-5% $1,008	+0% $1,070	+5% $1,132	+10% $1,194
Rate	-1.0pp $1,084	-0.5pp $1,077	base $1,070	+0.5pp $1,062	+1.0pp $1,055

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,000
• Closing costs: $840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 1995-08-31
   soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $133 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $288 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$155/yr (+$13/mo · 116.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,568
• − Property taxes: −$133
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,506
• − Management: −$1,506
• − Depreciation: −$815
• Taxable income: $13,155
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,157
• After-tax cash flow: $9,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Castle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4216620
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $30,967
• Composite: 11.08/100
• National rank: #9736
• State rank: #519 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #1120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Castle, PA
• City population: 30,767
• Population (ZIP): 15,195

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.26%
• Current HPI: 173.0332
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 1995-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-15.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $133 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.