115 Debbie Dr · Beech Mountain Lakes, PA 18222

$249,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 261 Days on market

Built 1990 $239/sqft · 77% above area Est $249k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful, Private and Upgraded Single Home in Beech Mountain Development. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 Bath, New Kitchen with Granite and SS Appliances, New Flooring Throughout, Marble Tile Main Bathroom with Modern Fixtures. Attached Garage, 2 Decks and Great Outdoor Space Front and Rear. PLUS, Private Lake Access, Restaurant and All That Beech Mountain Has to Offer. Call Today!!!

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New flooring
• Ss appliances

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• GRANITE
• SS APPLIANCES
• NEW FLOORING
• MARBLE TILE MAIN BATHROOM
• MODERN FIXTURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-887/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Beech Mountain Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#698 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazleton Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #476 of 539 in PA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $249k implies a 298% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $208,489 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,488
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -0.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $130,933
• Equity at exit: $224,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $389,344
• Equity at exit: $483,752

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18222

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,538/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,179

Max offer price $235,935

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 243 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 242 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 241 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $249,000 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Beautiful, Private and Upgraded Single Home in Beech Mountain Development. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 Bath, New Kitchen with Granite and SS Appliances, New Flooring Throughout, Marble Tile Main Bathroom with Modern Fixtures. Attached Garage, 2 Decks and Great Outdoor Space Front and Rear. PLUS, Private Lake Access, Restaurant and All That Beech Mountain Has to Offer. Call Today!!!

16. 2025-10-01
    listed $259,000 Active 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Beautiful, Private and Upgraded Single Home in Beech Mountain Development. 4 bedrooms, 1.5 Bath, New Kitchen with Granite and SS Appliances, New Flooring Throughout, Marble Tile Main Bathroom with Modern Fixtures. Attached Garage, 2 Decks and Great Outdoor Space Front and Rear. PLUS, Private Lake Access, Restaurant and All That Beech Mountain Has to Offer. Call Today!!!

17. 2025-08-12
    price $259,000
18. 2025-06-21
    price $269,000
19. 2025-04-09
    price $279,000
20. 2020-06-26
    soldstatus $62,500
21. 2020-05-18
    listed $39,900
22. 2019-12-18
    listed $50,000
23. 2016-09-21
    soldstatus $120,000
24. 2016-09-20
    soldstatus $120,000
25. 2016-07-06
    listed $119,900
26. 2007-09-11
    soldstatus $117,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,538 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$698/yr (+$58/mo · 27.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,538
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,001
• − Management: −$2,001
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$5,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,238
• After-tax cash flow: $351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazleton Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,247
• Composite: 20.44/100
• National rank: #8582
• State rank: #476 of 539 in PA

Livability — Beech Mountain Lakes

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #6837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beech Mountain Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,946

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.01%
• Current HPI: 302.4923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+111.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $249,000 LCAR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $259,000 LCAR
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $259,000 LCAR
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $269,000 LCAR
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $279,000 LCAR
• 2020-06-26 Sold (MLS) $62,500 PMAR
• 2020-05-18 Listed $39,900 PMAR
• 2019-12-18 Listed $50,000 LCAR
• 2016-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-20 Sold (MLS) $120,000 LCAR
• 2016-07-06 Listed $119,900 LCAR
• 2007-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,538 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.