2918 138th Pl · Lubbock, TX 79423

$288,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · Other · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 6,635 sqft lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2918 138th Place! The Oxford is one of our one-story floor plans located in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a modern brick exterior, the Oxford is sure to turn heads. Take a look inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home and discover 1,838 square feet of elevated modern living. The Oxford features an open concept kitchen, living, and dining area, allowing you to always be close to the action. The kitchen features a spacious island, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each bedroom boasts plush carpeted floors and plenty of space to make everyone in your home feel comfortable. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom featuring granite vanity tops and a spacious walk-in closet, allowing for additional privacy and serenity. The Oxford features plenty of family-friendly yet elevated designs at every turn.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Open concept kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• MODERN BRICK EXTERIOR
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-523/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lubbock-Cooper South El (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 739 students, 41% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper Middle (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 914 students, 37% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper H S (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B, #189 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,117 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 673 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,667 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-51,570
• Equity at exit: $43,089

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-56,404
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 673
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,515
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $579/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,132

Max offer price $281,286

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $120	-5% $38	+0% $-44	+5% $-456	+10% $-556
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-126	+0% $-44	+5% $38	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $30	base $-44	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,248
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2925 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	5.0	2.5	2135	$2,495	$1.17	15d	1	0.05mi
3008 139th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	23d	1	0.13mi
3011 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.13mi
3011 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	0.13mi
2726 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1929	$2,400	$1.24	23d	1	0.14mi
3015 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.15mi
2745 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,550	$1.10	23d	1	0.15mi
2739 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,600	$1.13	45d	1	0.17mi
3016 140th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,000	$1.48	23d	1	0.19mi
2713 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	23d	1	0.21mi
2903 134th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,300	$1.23	23d	1	0.23mi
3105 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	15d	1	0.26mi
3111 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	45d	1	0.28mi
2550 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1732	$1,795	$1.04	15d	1	0.31mi
2627 135th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,600	$1.05	23d	1	0.34mi
2613 136th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,599	$1.28	23d	1	0.35mi
2607 135th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,500	$0.99	45d	1	0.39mi
2309 134th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,799	$1.24	15d	1	0.58mi
2308 133rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	45d	1	0.62mi
2415 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	15d	1	0.63mi
2410 144th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	45d	1	0.64mi
2410 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,399	$1.04	45d	1	0.64mi
2404 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,399	$1.04	45d	1	0.67mi
14408 Avenue X Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	15d	1	0.69mi
13802 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,900	$1.04	15d	1	0.69mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,800	$1.39	45d	1	0.70mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,700	$1.34	15d	1	0.70mi
14413 Avenue X Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	45d	1	0.73mi
14102 Avenue V Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	23d	1	0.83mi
3605 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2544	$3,800	$1.49	45d	1	0.98mi
2217 150th Pl Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,150	$1.21	15d	1	1.04mi
1907 136th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,050	$1.00	15d	1	1.08mi
13808 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	45d	1	1.10mi
13218 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	1.13mi
13213 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	15d	1	1.16mi
3515 124th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2201	$3,400	$1.54	15d	1	1.18mi
13212 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	23d	1	1.19mi
13212 Avenue R Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,625	$1.12	15d	1	1.25mi
1705 141st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,795	$1.24	23d	1	1.33mi
1635 133rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,500	$0.98	23d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $288,990 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $288,990 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $288,990 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $288,990 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $288,990 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $288,990 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $288,990 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $288,990 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $288,990 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    price $281,990 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    Welcome to 2918 138th Place! The Oxford is one of our one-story floor plans located in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a modern brick exterior, the Oxford is sure to turn heads. Take a look inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home and discover 1,838 square feet of elevated modern living. The Oxford features an open concept kitchen, living, and dining area, allowing you to always be close to the action. The kitchen features a spacious island, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each bedroom boasts plush carpeted floors and plenty of space to make everyone in your home feel comfortable. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom featuring granite vanity tops and a spacious walk-in closet, allowing for additional privacy and serenity. The Oxford features plenty of family-friendly yet elevated designs at every turn.

11. 2026-04-07
    listed $288,990 Active 1026-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1026 chars)

    Welcome to 2918 138th Place! The Oxford is one of our one-story floor plans located in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a modern brick exterior, the Oxford is sure to turn heads. Take a look inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home and discover 1,838 square feet of elevated modern living. The Oxford features an open concept kitchen, living, and dining area, allowing you to always be close to the action. The kitchen features a spacious island, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each bedroom boasts plush carpeted floors and plenty of space to make everyone in your home feel comfortable. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom featuring granite vanity tops and a spacious walk-in closet, allowing for additional privacy and serenity. The Oxford features plenty of family-friendly yet elevated designs at every turn. Estimated completion date: 04/29/2026. Images may vary from actual home.

12. 2026-04-01
    listed $288,990 Active 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    Welcome to 2918 138th Place! The Oxford is one of our one-story floor plans located in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a modern brick exterior, the Oxford is sure to turn heads. Take a look inside this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home and discover 1,838 square feet of elevated modern living. The Oxford features an open concept kitchen, living, and dining area, allowing you to always be close to the action. The kitchen features a spacious island, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each bedroom boasts plush carpeted floors and plenty of space to make everyone in your home feel comfortable. The primary bedroom is complete with its own attached bathroom featuring granite vanity tops and a spacious walk-in closet, allowing for additional privacy and serenity. The Oxford features plenty of family-friendly yet elevated designs at every turn.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $579 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,289 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,709/yr (+$392/mo · 812.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$579
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$5,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,365
• After-tax cash flow: $841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $281,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Listed $288,990 LARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $288,990 Zillow

Property tax history

+145.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $579 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.