7015 Ethel Ave · St. Louis, MO 63117

$185,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1923 4,199 sqft lot Est $314k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all Investors! Opportunity awaits with this spacious home located in the awesome Hi-Pointe neighborhood. Bring your creative ideas and get ready to call this place home.

Key facts

• 4,199 sq ft lot
• Built 1923
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private ownership; No pool
• Financial info: Lease not considered; Seller may consider concessions

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Single phase electric; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level (levels listed as One)
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; 2 bedrooms on the main level; 2 bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom on the upper level; 1 half bathroom on the lower level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mason Elem. (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #813 of 1,115 statewide, top 75%, 389 students, 99% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.21%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,390
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7040 Ethel Ave	0.07mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,472 (-1%)	8mo	$289,900	$197	81
7022 Ethel Ave	0.04mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,440 (-3%)	8mo	$375,000	$260	79
7051 Nashville Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,542 (+4%)	2mo	$335,000	$217	73
1035 Central Ave	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,665 (+12%)	1mo	$309,900	$186	72
1111 Forest Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,324 (-11%)	3mo	$227,500	$172	67
1115 Forest Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,648 (+11%)	0mo	$274,900	$167	66
6815 Wise Ave	0.22mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (-11%)	3mo	$300,000	$227	61
7469 Hoover Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+2%)	8mo	$389,900	$258	57
6682 W Park Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,597 (+7%)	8mo	$279,900	$175	56
7440 Wise Ave	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,416 (-5%)	6mo	$299,000	$211	52
1370 Mobile Ct	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-3%)	2mo	$244,900	$170	52
7235 El Moro Ave	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,655 (+11%)	5mo	$399,900	$242	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $39,405
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $140,259
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63117

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,889 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $1,002

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,621

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6301 Southwood Ave Unit 3rd floor Clayton, MO	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,500	$1.94	43d	1	0.32mi
6318 S Rosebury Ave Clayton, MO	3.0	2.0	1712	$2,600	$1.52	14d	1	0.36mi
665 S Skinker Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$3,500	$3.24	16d	40	0.42mi
665 S Skinker Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$3,045	$2.82	1d	43	0.42mi
6328 Northwood Ave Unit 2nd floor Clayton, MO	3.0	1.0	1700	$2,950	$1.74	23d	1	0.45mi
7103 Horner Ave Unit 7 Richmond Heights, MO	3.0	2.5	1816	$2,995	$1.65	1d	1	0.48mi
1617 Forest Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1822	$1,195	$0.66	3d	1	0.60mi
6414 Wise Ave Unit 401 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	43d	1	0.72mi
6723 Glades Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	980	$1,750	$1.79	7d	1	0.78mi
5700 Highlands Plaza Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$4,100	$3.98	2d	24	1.28mi
6186 Waterman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1100	$3,000	$2.73	3d	1	1.32mi
6023 Waterman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,800	$3.17	43d	1	1.41mi
5920 McPherson Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,550	$1.96	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $185,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,774
• − Management: −$2,774
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $9,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,316
• After-tax cash flow: $9,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 9,261
• Household income: $90,921
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Chinese 3% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.54%
• Current HPI: 220.8603
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $199,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,805 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.