204 5th St · East Conemaugh, PA 15909

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

3,920 sqft lot $58/sqft · 127% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right in to this spacious 3-4 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom two story brick home in Conemaugh Valley School District! The first floor offers a Living Room, separate Dining Room, updated eat-in Kitchen with appliances included, Family Room and Mud Room area. There are 3-4 Bedrooms on the second floor and an updated full Bathroom with walk-in shower. Walk up attic. Unfinished basement with Laundry Area (washer & dryer included). Private backyard & detached 2 car garage. Call today to schedule your tour!

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 38 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,504 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Conemaugh Valley SD (rural): math 30% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #313 of 539 in PA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $100k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.86%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,995
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 127.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 5th St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,736 (0%)	0mo	$94,800	$55	100
160 Second St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-12%)	4mo	$48,000	$31	63
1261 Main St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,750 (+1%)	13mo	$90,000	$51	63
320 Oak St	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,824 (+5%)	19mo	$77,900	$43	58
117 Main St	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,976 (+14%)	11mo	$49,900	$25	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $37,106
• Equity at exit: $48,120

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $97,543
• Equity at exit: $76,749

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15909

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,068/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $829

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Move right in to this spacious 3-4 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom two story brick home in Conemaugh Valley School District! The first floor offers a Living Room, separate Dining Room, updated eat-in Kitchen with appliances included, Family Room and Mud Room area. There are 3-4 Bedrooms on the second floor and an updated full Bathroom with walk-in shower. Walk up attic. Unfinished basement with Laundry Area (washer & dryer included). Private backyard & detached 2 car garage. Call today to schedule your tour!

2. 2026-04-16
   price $99,900 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Move right in to this spacious 3-4 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom two story brick home in Conemaugh Valley School District! The first floor offers a Living Room, separate Dining Room, updated eat-in Kitchen with appliances included, Family Room and Mud Room area. There are 3-4 Bedrooms on the second floor and an updated full Bathroom with walk-in shower. Walk up attic. Unfinished basement with Laundry Area (washer & dryer included). Private backyard & detached 2 car garage. Call today to schedule your tour!

3. 2026-03-31
   listed $114,900 Active 513-char remark

   Show marketing remark (513 chars)

   Move right in to this spacious 3-4 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom two story brick home in Conemaugh Valley School District! The first floor offers a Living Room, separate Dining Room, updated eat-in Kitchen with appliances included, Family Room and Mud Room area. There are 3-4 Bedrooms on the second floor and an updated full Bathroom with walk-in shower. Walk up attic. Unfinished basement with Laundry Area (washer & dryer included). Private backyard & detached 2 car garage. Call today to schedule your tour!

4. 2025-01-02
   soldstatus $63,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,068 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$255/yr (+$21/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,068
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$649
• After-tax cash flow: $3,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conemaugh Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4206430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $42,523
• Composite: 36.16/100
• National rank: #4739
• State rank: #313 of 539 in PA

Livability — East Conemaugh

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1504
• US rank: #19510

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Conemaugh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,850

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Polish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Current HPI: 150.8221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+56.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $99,900 CSMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $114,900 CSMLS
• 2025-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $63,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,068 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.