911 E Duke #40 St · Vermillion, SD 57069

$19,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 214 Days on market

Built 1974 $22/sqft · 18% below area Est $24k · 18% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly updated 2 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath mobile home which also includes a den area. This mobile home is completely move-in ready. Lot rent is $600 plus water/sewer/trash. Must contact park management prior to purchasing the mobile home.

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 1974
• Listed 213 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.2% vs local median 2.5% in Vermillion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#5 in SD, #757 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Vermillion School District 13-1 (town): math 44% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #27 of 59 in SD (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 28 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $17,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 142.36%
• DSCR: 7.33
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $24,245
• List price: $19,900
• Delta: -17.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
911 E Duke St. #38 St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	938 (+2%)	13mo	$22,000	$23	78
447 N Plum St #28	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (0%)	9mo	$10,000	$11	75
833 E Duke St #25	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+6%)	13mo	$57,000	$58	67
833 E Duke St #84	0.10mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	20mo	$8,500	$10	62
410 Prentis Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,047 (+13%)	14mo	$194,500	$186	50
447 N Plum St #11	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+14%)	20mo	$15,000	$14	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.98×
• Total profit: $38,893
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.82×
• Total profit: $88,142
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57069

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $174

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $675	-5% $668	+0% $661	+5% $654	+10% $647
Rent	-10% $581	-5% $621	+0% $661	+5% $701	+10% $741
Rate	-1.0pp $671	-0.5pp $666	base $661	+0.5pp $656	+1.0pp $651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
315 N Norbeck St Vermillion, SD	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,320	$1.20	44d	1	0.48mi
1000 N Dakota St Vermillion, SD	2.0	2.0	790	$756	$0.96	44d	1	0.67mi
105 E Dartmouth St Vermillion, SD	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	44d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $19,900 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,900 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,900 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,900 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,900 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $19,900 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $19,900 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,900 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,900 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $19,900 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $19,900 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $19,900 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,900 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,900 Active 196 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,900 Active 195 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,900 Active 194 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    price $19,900 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Newly updated 2 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath mobile home which also includes a den area. This mobile home is completely move-in ready. Lot rent is $600 plus water/sewer/trash. Must contact park management prior to purchasing the mobile home.

18. 2025-11-17
    listed $22,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Newly updated 2 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath mobile home which also includes a den area. This mobile home is completely move-in ready. Lot rent is $600 plus water/sewer/trash. Must contact park management prior to purchasing the mobile home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$970
• − Management: −$970
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $8,098
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,943
• After-tax cash flow: $5,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vermillion School District 13-1
• NCES district ID: 4674370
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,421
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2995
• State rank: #27 of 59 in SD

Livability — Vermillion

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #757

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vermillion, SD
• County: Clay County · 13,091 people
• City population: 13,091
• Metro: Vermillion, SD
• Population (ZIP): 13,091
• Household income: $53,327
• Rent vs Own: 53.8% rent · 46.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 792.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,009 people
• By 2030: 15,554 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 15,862 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 16,801 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 20,880 · +39.1%
• By 2100: 27,360 · +82.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Native American 5% Asian 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Iranian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.5) · D 52.0% · R 45.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 24.2pp · 2024: 6.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.5 2020: D+11.0 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+15.5 2008: D+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.55%
• Current HPI: 185.1311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Vermillion, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $19,900 NWIA
• 2025-11-17 Listed $22,000 NWIA