121 Smith Dr · Winchester, VA 22603

$59,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 1996 Good condition 2,000 sqft lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

JUST REDUCE. .. .Beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-wide home located in the desirable Regency Lakes community on leased land. This home was fully refreshed in 2023, featuring a new roof, HVAC system, and water heater, offering peace of mind and modern efficiency for years to come. Inside, you’ll find a bright, contemporary design with tasteful finishes and a comfortable layout perfect for everyday living. AS-IS This is an affordable opportunity to own an updated home in a well-maintained community without compromising on comfort or style. Enjoy a spacious large backyard, ideal for outdoor gatherings, pets, or relaxing. Regency Lakes offers excellent community amenities incl

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Water heater
• Large backyard

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM
• WATER HEATER
• LARGE BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present; Ownership interest: Land lease; Pets allowed on a case-by-case basis with number and size/weight limits; Not in a federal flood zone
• Financial info: Land lease monthly payment: $894; Land lease years remaining: 100; Annual ground rent listed as an income/expense item

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with 2 spaces; On-street parking available; Parking lot available; Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public septic
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; No stairs (accessible); Year of major remodel: 2023 (estimated)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above grade structure
• Exterior features: Community pool; Ground rent exists (land lease)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Estimated living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $867 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.6% vs local median 3.1% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#138 in VA, #4,429 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: commute F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $58,199 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.90%
• DSCR: 3.75
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $334,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 Eckard Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+10%)	1mo	$78,000	$71	53
111 Lake Wisdom Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,108 (+11%)	15mo	$369,900	$334	44
102 Berkshire Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	872 (-13%)	16mo	$405,000	$464	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $45,493
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.59×
• Total profit: $110,780
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22603

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $867

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $59,999

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1016 Franklin St Unit 3 Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	1142	$1,498	$1.31	43d	1	1.04mi
1105 Franklin St Unit 1105 Winchester, VA	2.0	1.5	1047	$1,650	$1.58	43d	1	1.04mi
1114 Allen Dr Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	43d	1	1.05mi
647 Laurelwood Cir Winchester, VA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,150	$1.48	43d	1	1.19mi
532 N Pleasant Valley Rd Unit POPLAR2 QUICK DELV Winchester, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	43d	1	1.24mi
220 Kimberly Way Winchester, VA	2.0	2.5	1080	$1,450	$1.34	43d	1	1.34mi
609 Smithfield Ave Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	976	$1,575	$1.61	43d	1	1.39mi
224 East St Winchester, VA	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,395	$1.22	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $59,999 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $59,999 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $59,999 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $59,999 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $59,999 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-05-19
   price $59,999
7. 2026-04-14
   listed $69,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $10,041
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,410
• After-tax cash flow: $7,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This updated single-wide home in Regency Lakes offers a good condition with recent renovations, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Resale Replace window seals — Improves energy efficiency and reduces heating/cooling costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Replace window seals — Improves energy efficiency and reduces heating/cooling costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #4429

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living B Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 62,070
• Population (ZIP): 17,748

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.71%
• Current HPI: 220.1805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $59,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $69,999 BRIGHT MLS