2111 Amelia Way Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$415,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2019 6,817 sqft lot Est $404k · at est. $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PERRY HOMES NEW CONSTRUCTION-Entry, extended entry and dining room with 12-foot ceilings. Library with French doors. Family room features a wall of windows. Island kitchen opens out to the family room. Highlights of the master bath include dual sinks, a garden tub, separate glass-enclosed shower and a large walk-in closet. Secluded guest suite. Large closets throughout. Two-car garage. Stage of construction is Trim on the day of entry.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Clubhouse
• Fenced in backyard

Tags

• GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• SCREENED IN BACK PATIO
• FENCED IN BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road surface: concrete; Lot features: near golf course, subdivision location, pond on lot; Lot size approximately 0.1565 acres
• HOA & community: Sienna HOA; Annual association fee; Association fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball, sport court, playground, dog park, picnic areas, trails, golf, meeting/party rooms

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces northeast; Entry on main level
• Construction: Built in 2019; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Enclosed porch; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation system; Paved driveway; Patio; Private yard; Tennis court(s); Deck; Screened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity in bathroom; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pots & pan drawers; Pot filler; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $415k).
• Recommended offer: $409k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,005/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $408,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $403,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,591 (-2%)	7mo	$439,990	$170	72
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,517 (-5%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	68
1706 Country Air Ln	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,700 (+2%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	66
1722 Country Air Ln	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,773 (+5%)	6mo	$419,000	$151	61
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-10%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	59
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,763 (+5%)	4mo	$399,950	$145	58
1506 Country Air Ln	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,808 (+6%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	56
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,413 (-9%)	6mo	$409,900	$170	55
1610 Country Air Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-10%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	54
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.59mi	4/3.5	2,935 (+11%)	4mo	$445,000	$152	48
2610 Lazy Vine Ln	0.72mi	4/4.5	2,907 (+10%)	1mo	$715,000	$246	47
1743 Country Air Ln	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,290 (-13%)	6mo	$385,000	$168	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-32,490
• Equity at exit: $87,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-28,947
• Equity at exit: $80,618

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$1,076 /mo · $12,914/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,051
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,503

Max offer price $415,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.02mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.27mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	10d	1	0.73mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $415,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $429,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $429,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 683-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $429,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,914 · $1,076/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,914 · $1,076/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$12,914
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,805
• − Management: −$4,805
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$345
• After-tax cash flow: $5,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $429,000 HARMLS
• 2019-12-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-07-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-07-24 Listed $357,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+47.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,914 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.