42769 La Cerena · Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$329,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1950 2,500 sqft lot $302/sqft · 32% below area Est $480k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best buy in Lower Moonridge 3 bedroom with 2 full baths. 2 Bedrooms downstairs plus a loft bedroom upstairs. Tub bathroom on first floor, shower bathroom of second floor. Kitchen has stove, microwave and refrigerator. All redone with new roof, flooring, paint and counters. Covered deck in back yard keeps the snow off the tables and chairs. Store your snow play gear in the large storage shed in back yard. Convenient to Bear Mountain, Summit and the Moonridge Zoo.

Key facts

• Exterior paint
• New 30 year roof
• Moonridge zoo

Tags

• LOWER MOONRIDGE LOCATION
• BEAR MOUNTAIN GOLF COURSE
• MOONRIDGE ZOO
• NEW 30 YEAR ROOF
• EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-family property (1 total unit); No ADU; No common walls; Year built source: Assessor
• HOA & community: Community features nearby: golf course, mountainous setting, lake

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Asphalt driveway; Driveway at level grade
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: House; Two stories; Raised entry level; Access via paved city streets; Located in the Moonridge subdivision
• Construction: Wood construction; Drywall interior walls; Raised foundation; Updated/remodeled
• Exterior features: Covered deck/patio; Deck; Yard; Storage building / shed; Lot-level / flat; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas range; Water heater (unit and central listed)
• Bedrooms: Main floor bedrooms (2); Loft
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Remodeled baths with bathtub, shower-in-tub and walk-in shower options
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall heater; Wood stove
• Interior features: High ceilings (9+ ft); Chair railings; Ceiling fan; Storage space; Stone counters; Mirrored closet doors; Panel doors; Blinds; Two levels; Updated/remodeled condition; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: In-closet laundry; Stackable washer/dryer compatible; Has laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 528 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $329k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,069 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,296
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: -31.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42672 Cougar Rd	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+1%)	1mo	$400,000	$362	76
42823 Cedar Ave	0.08mi	3/1.5	960 (-12%)	6mo	$420,000	$438	69
1162 Sylvan Gln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	3mo	$435,000	$376	66
42958 Encino Rd	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (-6%)	1mo	$380,000	$373	66
1021 Villa Grv	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+3%)	5mo	$410,000	$366	64
42721 Willow Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0	938 (-14%)	5mo	$440,000	$469	64
43131 Grizzly	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-8%)	1mo	$425,000	$425	63
1240 Sheephorn Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+8%)	5mo	$670,000	$571	53
1240 Sheephorn	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+8%)	5mo	$670,000	$571	53
43113 Sheephorn	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,185 (+9%)	2mo	$350,000	$295	52
1065 S Minton Ave	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,028 (-6%)	2mo	$400,000	$389	51
43243 Deer Canyon Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	960 (-12%)	2mo	$435,000	$453	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-72,484
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-106,778
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92315

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 528
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,501 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,583/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,735

Max offer price $296,237

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42814 Willow Ave Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	798	$1,995	$2.50	17d	1	0.07mi
42638 Moonridge Rd Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	3.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	44d	1	0.30mi
1021 Club View Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1120	$4,400	$3.93	24d	1	0.30mi
42983 Fern Ave Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	1140	$2,450	$2.15	44d	1	0.45mi
43115 Moonridge Rd Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	968	$1,700	$1.76	44d	1	0.49mi
43065 Goldmine Woods Ln Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.5	1450	$2,350	$1.62	24d	1	0.49mi
689 Butte Ave Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	998	$1,800	$1.80	44d	1	0.71mi
43405 Sheephorn Rd Unit A Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	700	$1,475	$2.11	15d	1	0.82mi
145 Pinion Pl Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,900	$2.07	44d	1	0.87mi
41935 Switzerland Dr #58 Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	3.0	1053	$1,750	$1.66	24d	1	0.97mi
1394 Lassen Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,150	$2.26	17d	1	0.98mi
645 Villa Grove Ave Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	976	$2,450	$2.51	24d	1	0.99mi
41935 Switzerland Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,000	$3.33	18d	1	1.03mi
43428 Primrose Ct Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.5	880	$3,595	$4.09	18d	1	1.04mi
619 Summit Blvd Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,200	$1.84	24d	1	1.13mi
600 Summit Blvd Unit A Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1373	$2,400	$1.75	44d	1	1.17mi
1336 La Crescenta Dr Big Bear City, CA	3.0	2.0	1128	$2,650	$2.35	44d	1	1.20mi
43785 Sand Canyon Rd Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,600	$2.75	44d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $329,000 Active 686-char remark
16. 2026-04-16
    price $329,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Best buy in Lower Moonridge 3 bedroom with 2 full baths. 2 Bedrooms downstairs plus a loft bedroom upstairs. Tub bathroom on first floor, shower bathroom of second floor. Kitchen has stove, microwave and refrigerator. All redone with new roof, flooring, paint and counters. Covered deck in back yard keeps the snow off the tables and chairs. Store your snow play gear in the large storage shed in back yard. Convenient to Bear Mountain, Summit and the Moonridge Zoo.

17. 2025-07-31
    historical
18. 2025-05-08
    price $349,000

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Best buy in Lower Moonridge 3 bedroom with 2 full baths. 2 Bedrooms downstairs plus a loft bedroom upstairs. Tub bathroom on first floor, shower bathroom of second floor. Kitchen has stove, microwave and refrigerator. All redone with new roof, flooring, paint and counters. Covered deck in back yard keeps the snow off the tables and chairs. Store your snow play gear in the large storage shed in back yard. Convenient to Bear Mountain, Summit and the Moonridge Zoo.

19. 2025-05-08
    price $349,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Best buy in Lower Moonridge 3 bedroom with 2 full baths. 2 Bedrooms downstairs plus a loft bedroom upstairs. Tub bathroom on first floor, shower bathroom of second floor. Kitchen has stove, microwave and refrigerator. All redone with new roof, flooring, paint and counters. Covered deck in back yard keeps the snow off the tables and chairs. Store your snow play gear in the large storage shed in back yard. Convenient to Bear Mountain, Summit and the Moonridge Zoo.

20. 2025-03-12
    listed $375,000 Active
21. 2025-01-31
    listed $375,000 Active 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    Best buy in Lower Moonridge 3 bedroom with 2 full baths. 2 Bedrooms downstairs plus a loft bedroom upstairs. Tub bathroom on first floor, shower bathroom of second floor. Kitchen has stove, microwave and refrigerator. All redone with new roof, flooring, paint and counters. Covered deck in back yard keeps the snow off the tables and chairs. Store your snow play gear in the large storage shed in back yard. Convenient to Bear Mountain, Summit and the Moonridge Zoo.

22. 2010-02-17
    soldstatus $165,000
23. 2005-10-25
    soldstatus $250,000
24. 2004-03-31
    soldstatus $190,000
25. 2002-12-17
    soldstatus $158,000
26. 2001-10-17
    soldstatus $123,500
27. 1996-01-16
    soldstatus $64,500
28. 1987-11-23
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,583 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,583 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥82°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$3,583
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,401
• − Management: −$2,401
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$8,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,925
• After-tax cash flow: $-300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Bear Lake, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 5,215
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,215
• Household income: $77,436
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -242.29%
• Current HPI: 310.1013
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+448.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $329,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $329,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $349,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $349,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-03-12 Listed $375,000 CRMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed $375,000 MRCAOR
• 2010-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $123,500 Public Records
• 1996-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records
• 1987-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,583 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.