Columbus Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$371,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,869 sqft · SingleFamily · 743 Days on market

↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make yourself at home in the Columbus floorplan. This spacious two-story floorplan is a real fan favorite and features 4-5 bedrooms, 2.5-2.5 bathrooms, and 2,869-2,920 square feet of functional living space. Keep reading to see what set this plan apart.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 743 days

Tags

• SPACIOUS TWO-STORY FLOORPLAN
• FUNCTIONAL LIVING SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $371,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $515,222.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $372k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 743 days — a 12% lower offer ($327k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $300,795 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 743 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.85%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $515,222
• List price: $371,990
• Delta: -27.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
743 Embrace Ct	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,880 (+0%)	2mo	$379,990	$132	88
779 Grand Dale Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	3,028 (+6%)	1mo	$459,990	$152	76
620 Rosy Dash Trl	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,527 (-12%)	2mo	$395,490	$157	64
252 Bright Alcove Ct	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,563 (-11%)	2mo	$399,000	$156	62
924 Dewy Lake Pl	0.47mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,116 (+9%)	1mo	$419,990	$135	56
607 Dove Haven Way	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,527 (-12%)	1mo	$383,990	$152	50
589 Dove Haven Way	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,506 (-13%)	2mo	$392,490	$157	50
639 Dove Haven Way	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,527 (-12%)	0mo	$387,990	$154	47
623 Dove Haven Way	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,506 (-13%)	2mo	$390,990	$156	46
1094 Dewy Lake Pl	0.67mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,116 (+9%)	2mo	$454,990	$146	46
614 Creekview Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,556 (-11%)	1mo	$399,999	$156	46
1066 Dewy Lake Pl	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,448 (-15%)	0mo	$409,990	$167	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-158,871
• Equity at exit: $76,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-235,284
• Equity at exit: $44,547

Cash invested: $144,262 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,008 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,702
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$644 /mo · $7,728/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-1,184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,507

Max offer price $343,851

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-828	-5% $-1,006	+0% $-1,184	+5% $-1,362	+10% $-1,540
Rent	-10% $-1,422	-5% $-1,303	+0% $-1,184	+5% $-1,065	+10% $-947
Rate	-1.0pp $-925	-0.5pp $-1,053	base $-1,184	+0.5pp $-1,318	+1.0pp $-1,454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,805
• Closing costs: $15,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	45d	1	0.22mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,900	$1.21	26d	1	0.43mi
252 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2957	$3,175	$1.07	1d	1	0.44mi
252 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2957	$3,175	$1.07	4d	1	0.44mi
344 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,600	$1.10	26d	1	0.58mi
304 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2900	$2,900	$1.00	0d	1	0.68mi
253 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2687	$2,600	$0.97	45d	1	0.68mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	26d	1	0.85mi
117 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2356	$2,600	$1.10	26d	1	0.85mi
383 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,500	$1.01	45d	1	0.91mi
361 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,295	$0.93	45d	1	0.92mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	45d	1	0.93mi
239 Tallgrass Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2394	$3,500	$1.46	45d	1	0.97mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	45d	1	0.98mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $371,990 Active 743 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $371,990 Active 740 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $371,990 Active 739 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $371,990 Active 738 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $371,990 Active 737 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $371,990 Active 735 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $371,990 Active 734 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $371,990 Active 731 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $371,990 Active 730 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $371,990 Active 729 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $371,990 Active 726 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $371,990 Active 725 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $371,990 Active 724 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $371,990 Active 723 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $371,990 Active 722 DOM
16. 2026-01-08
    price $371,990 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Make yourself at home in the Columbus floorplan. This spacious two-story floorplan is a real fan favorite and features 4-5 bedrooms, 2.5-2.5 bathrooms, and 2,869-2,920 square feet of functional living space. Keep reading to see what set this plan apart.

17. 2025-10-23
    price $370,990 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Make yourself at home in the Columbus floorplan. This spacious two-story floorplan is a real fan favorite and features 4-5 bedrooms, 2.5-2.5 bathrooms, and 2,869-2,920 square feet of functional living space. Keep reading to see what set this plan apart.

18. 2025-09-05
    price $369,990 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Make yourself at home in the Columbus floorplan. This spacious two-story floorplan is a real fan favorite and features 4-5 bedrooms, 2.5-2.5 bathrooms, and 2,869-2,920 square feet of functional living space. Keep reading to see what set this plan apart.

19. 2025-03-21
    price $389,990 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Make yourself at home in the Columbus floorplan. This spacious two-story floorplan is a real fan favorite and features 4-5 bedrooms, 2.5-2.5 bathrooms, and 2,869-2,920 square feet of functional living space. Keep reading to see what set this plan apart.

20. 2024-08-14
    price $409,990 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Make yourself at home in the Columbus floorplan. This spacious two-story floorplan is a real fan favorite and features 4-5 bedrooms, 2.5-2.5 bathrooms, and 2,869-2,920 square feet of functional living space. Keep reading to see what set this plan apart.

21. 2024-06-08
    listed $424,990 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Make yourself at home in the Columbus floorplan. This spacious two-story floorplan is a real fan favorite and features 4-5 bedrooms, 2.5-2.5 bathrooms, and 2,869-2,920 square feet of functional living space. Keep reading to see what set this plan apart.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,860
• − Property taxes: −$7,728
• − Insurance: −$2,576
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,888
• − Management: −$2,888
• − Depreciation: −$14,988
• Taxable loss: −$23,833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,720
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $371,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $370,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $369,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $389,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-08 Listed $424,990 Zillow