402 Dubai Ave · San Marcos, TX 78656

$240,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,162 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $281k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0

Listing remarks

The Watermill Collection is a new series of single-family homes coming soon to the Cotton Gateway masterplan in Maxwell, TX. The community boasts a prime location near Kyle and San Marcos, offering convenient access to the best of local shopping, dining and more. Plus, eligible students will attend desirable Lockhart ISD Schools.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Lockhart isd schools
• Prime location

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• LOCKHART ISD SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 402 Dubai Ave, Maxwell, TX 78656; Status: Active; Inventory type: Spec
• Financial info: List price $239,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home, Sherman plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 2162

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Sherman plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $241k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-712/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.4%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,306 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,060
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
456 Paris St	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-14%)	0mo	$231,999	$124	68
530 Paris St	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-12%)	4mo	$233,990	$124	64
539 Paris St	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-12%)	6mo	$262,990	$139	62
547 Paris St	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-12%)	5mo	$249,990	$132	61
563 Paris St	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-12%)	4mo	$255,990	$135	61
552 Lisbon Ave	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-12%)	4mo	$247,990	$131	61
543 Paris St	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	2mo	$238,990	$129	59
535 Paris St	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	4mo	$231,990	$125	58
559 Paris St	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	2mo	$239,990	$130	58
548 Lisbon Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	3mo	$234,990	$127	57
560 Lisbon Ave	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-14%)	5mo	$264,990	$143	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-28,119
• Equity at exit: $57,886

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-32,898
• Equity at exit: $60,542

Cash invested: $67,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78656

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,264
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$301 /mo · $3,615/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,108

Max offer price $232,408

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $24	+0% $-59	+5% $-143	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-220	-5% $-140	+0% $-59	+5% $21	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $2	base $-59	+0.5pp $-122	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,248
• Closing costs: $7,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
531 Paris St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,950	$1.17	0d	1	0.25mi
205 E Lima Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,899	$1.12	0d	1	0.34mi
351 Cobb Branch Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1616	$1,950	$1.21	0d	4	0.67mi
275 Aplite Pass Maxwell, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,420	$1.40	0d	1	0.68mi
283 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,609	$1.12	18d	1	0.83mi
312 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	45d	1	0.85mi
253 Fairlawn Way Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,235	$1.16	26d	1	0.87mi
328 Mica Trl Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	45d	1	0.94mi
300 Geode Gln Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1712	$1,795	$1.05	45d	1	0.96mi
566 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1837	$1,850	$1.01	18d	1	0.96mi
192 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1610	$1,699	$1.06	45d	1	0.97mi
171 Haywood Mnr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,850	$1.21	6d	1	0.97mi
147 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,441	$0.99	45d	1	0.98mi
230 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	19d	1	0.98mi
543 Gabbro Gdns Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,695	$1.04	24d	1	1.00mi
124 Hidden Branch Cv Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,800	$1.06	0d	1	1.06mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	6d	1	1.09mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	19d	1	1.09mi
108 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,800	$1.19	26d	1	1.09mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,850	$1.09	14d	1	1.10mi
146 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,850	$1.09	45d	1	1.11mi
170 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	2122	$1,795	$0.85	19d	1	1.11mi
170 White Dunes Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	3.0	2122	$1,795	$0.85	6d	1	1.11mi
342 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$1,975	$0.95	45d	1	1.14mi
296 Agate Cliff Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,675	$1.18	0d	1	1.16mi
251 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,650	$1.06	19d	1	1.18mi
444 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1830	$1,850	$1.01	6d	1	1.18mi
274 Jade St Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$1,795	$1.22	45d	1	1.20mi
170 Bright Flora Ln Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	2312	$1,950	$0.84	45d	1	1.20mi
151 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,895	$1.06	6d	1	1.22mi
293 Tempest Trl Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,825	$1.07	6d	1	1.22mi
195 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,900	$1.07	6d	1	1.23mi
211 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$1,840	$1.03	19d	1	1.23mi
170 Living Reef Dr Maxwell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.25mi
214 Kyanite Dr Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,650	$1.07	45d	1	1.32mi
1413 Soapstone Pass Maxwell, TX	4.0	3.0	1952	$2,500	$1.28	45d	1	1.32mi
188 Thistle Ln Maxwell, TX	5.0	3.0	2618	$3,200	$1.22	0d	1	1.40mi
704 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1904	$1,822	$0.96	0d	19	1.44mi
1259 Delta Crst Maxwell, TX	4.0	2.0	1522	$1,695	$1.11	19d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,990 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,990 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,990 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,990 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,990 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,990 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,990 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $240,990 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,990 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,990 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,990 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,990 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,990 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,499
• − Property taxes: −$3,615
• − Insurance: −$1,205
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − Depreciation: −$7,011
• Taxable loss: −$4,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,847
• Household income: $81,346
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 89.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 21% White 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 228.3622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B