528 Central Ave · Frostproof, FL 33843

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1981 0.41 ac lot $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled home in the Sun Ray community right off Hwy 27. This Two bedroom, two bath concrete block home has new plank flooring, new paint inside and out. Kitchen has been updated with new cabinets, counter tops, and island breakfast bar. Both bathrooms have new vanities, toilets, ceramic tile, and lighting. Fenced in back yard with utility building, single garage with utility room located in the rear. Extra lot to the north of the home is included. Approx 1 1/2 hour drive to Tampa or Orlando.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoned R-1; Lot size about 0.41 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• HOA & community: Has HOA (optional membership); Annual association fee $25 (approx. $2.08/month); Community playground; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Solar energy generation
• Home design: Single-family home; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Chain link fencing; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 75 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-816/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#456 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frostproof Ben Hill Griffin Jr Elementary School (math 34% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 917 students, 66% FRL); Frostproof Middle/Senior High (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 1,150 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 438 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $195k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,585 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,149
• Equity at exit: $50,166

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-899
• Equity at exit: $55,364

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33843

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 438
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,536/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,562

Max offer price $182,994

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-13	+0% $-68	+5% $-123	+10% $-178
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-126	+0% $-68	+5% $-10	+10% $49
Rate	-1.0pp $30	-0.5pp $-18	base $-68	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-25
    listed $195,000 Active
17. 2025-09-18
    historical
18. 2025-08-22
    listed $209,000 Active
19. 2019-05-15
    soldstatus $120,000
20. 2019-05-13
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled home in the Sun Ray community right off Hwy 27. This Two bedroom, two bath concrete block home has new plank flooring, new paint inside and out. Kitchen has been updated with new cabinets, counter tops, and island breakfast bar. Both bathrooms have new vanities, toilets, ceramic tile, and lighting. Fenced in back yard with utility building, single garage with utility room located in the rear. Extra lot to the north of the home is included. Approx 1 1/2 hour drive to Tampa or Orlando.

21. 2019-04-09
    status Pending 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled home in the Sun Ray community right off Hwy 27. This Two bedroom, two bath concrete block home has new plank flooring, new paint inside and out. Kitchen has been updated with new cabinets, counter tops, and island breakfast bar. Both bathrooms have new vanities, toilets, ceramic tile, and lighting. Fenced in back yard with utility building, single garage with utility room located in the rear. Extra lot to the north of the home is included. Approx 1 1/2 hour drive to Tampa or Orlando.

22. 2019-03-28
    listed $114,900 Active 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled home in the Sun Ray community right off Hwy 27. This Two bedroom, two bath concrete block home has new plank flooring, new paint inside and out. Kitchen has been updated with new cabinets, counter tops, and island breakfast bar. Both bathrooms have new vanities, toilets, ceramic tile, and lighting. Fenced in back yard with utility building, single garage with utility room located in the rear. Extra lot to the north of the home is included. Approx 1 1/2 hour drive to Tampa or Orlando.

23. 2019-02-04
    soldstatus $60,000
24. 2019-01-31
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold
25. 2018-11-28
    status Pending
26. 2018-11-26
    listed $69,900 Active
27. 2000-03-10
    soldstatus $53,000
28. 1997-03-14
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,536
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$4,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,021
• After-tax cash flow: $206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Frostproof

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #8297

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,072

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Current HPI: 311.1519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+333.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Listed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-13 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-28 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-31 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-26 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,536 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.