2123 Stillhouse Dr · Montgomery, TX 77316

$315,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,941 sqft · Land · 82 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $115/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This expansive new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-plan layout connecting a spacious family room, lovely dining room and a multifunctional kitchen with wraparound countertops. A back door leads out to a covered patio, perfect for morning coffee and outdoor living. Residing on the opposite side are all four bedrooms, including the lavish owner's suite with a spa-style bathroom.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Spa-style bathroom
• Open-plan layout

Tags

• OPEN-PLAN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• SPA-STYLE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $315,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $408,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $316k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-721 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2717 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $225,110 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.56%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $408,990
• List price: $315,990
• Delta: -16.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2154 Stillhouse Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,189 (+13%)	1mo	$389,990	$178	70
2147 Stillhouse Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+23%)	0mo	$360,990	$151	68
2328 Verano St	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,193 (+13%)	0mo	$382,990	$175	67
2406 Verano St	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,354 (+21%)	0mo	$398,990	$169	60
42544 Edmund Rucker Ln	1.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,911 (-2%)	0mo	$284,990	$149	55
1515 Sheltered Ln	1.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,896 (-2%)	1mo	$294,990	$156	54
1638 Lorenzo Ln	0.93mi	4/3.0	2,049 (+6%)	0mo	$339,900	$166	52
42706 Loma Vista Ct	0.88mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,061 (+6%)	0mo	$344,990	$167	49
1810 S Farm To Market 1486 Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-24%)	1mo	$349,000	$235	47
1522 Sheltered Ln	1.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,066 (+6%)	1mo	$324,088	$157	44
1503 Sheltered Ln	1.20mi	4/3.0	2,160 (+11%)	0mo	$309,990	$144	42
42802 Manzano St	1.04mi	4/3.0	2,346 (+21%)	1mo	$354,990	$151	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-118,101
• Equity at exit: $60,982

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-185,008
• Equity at exit: $35,362

Cash invested: $114,517 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2717
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $830/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,164

Max offer price $281,624

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-489	-5% $-605	+0% $-721	+5% $-1,304	+10% $-1,446
Rent	-10% $-899	-5% $-810	+0% $-721	+5% $-632	+10% $-543
Rate	-1.0pp $-515	-0.5pp $-617	base $-721	+0.5pp $-827	+1.0pp $-935

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,248
• Closing costs: $12,270
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Crest Management CompanyAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and stucco constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 12Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 12Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 12
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen/family room comboSeparate showerTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $315,990 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $315,990 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $315,990 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $315,990 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $315,990 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $315,990 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $315,990 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $315,990 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $315,990 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $315,990 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $315,990 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $315,990 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $315,990 Active 64 DOM

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    This expansive new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-plan layout connecting a spacious family room, lovely dining room and a multifunctional kitchen with wraparound countertops. A back door leads out to a covered patio, perfect for morning coffee and outdoor living. Residing on the opposite side are all four bedrooms, including the lavish owner's suite with a spa-style bathroom.

14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $318,990 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $318,990 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $318,990 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $318,990 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $318,990 Active 58 DOM

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    This expansive new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-plan layout connecting a spacious family room, lovely dining room and a multifunctional kitchen with wraparound countertops. A back door leads out to a covered patio, perfect for morning coffee and outdoor living. Residing on the opposite side are all four bedrooms, including the lavish owner's suite with a spa-style bathroom.

19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $328,990 Active 57 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $328,990 Active 56 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $328,990 Active 54 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $328,990 Active 53 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $328,990 Active 52 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $328,990 Active 50 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $328,990 Active 49 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $328,990 Active 48 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $328,990 Active 47 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $328,990 Active 46 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $328,990 Active 45 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $328,990 Active 44 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $328,990 Active 43 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $328,990 Active 42 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $328,990 Active 41 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $328,990 Active 40 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $328,990 Active 39 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $328,990 Active 37 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $328,990 Active 35 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $328,990 Active 34 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $328,990 Active 31 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $328,990 Active 30 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $328,990 Active 29 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    remarks 684-char remark
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $328,990 Active 28 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $328,990 Active 26 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    price $328,990 Active 22 DOM

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    This expansive new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-plan layout connecting a spacious family room, lovely dining room and a multifunctional kitchen with wraparound countertops. A back door leads out to a covered patio, perfect for morning coffee and outdoor living. Residing on the opposite side are all four bedrooms, including the lavish owner's suite with a spa-style bathroom.

46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $344,590 Active 22 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $344,590 Active 21 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $344,590 Active 20 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $344,590 Active 17 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,590 Active 16 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,783 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,953/yr (+$413/mo · 596.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,910
• − Property taxes: −$830
• − Insurance: −$2,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$11,898
• Taxable loss: −$16,371
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,929
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through landscaping and interior painting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and can increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Willie E Williams El F TX #1,269/4,322 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 Middle Magnolia J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Magnolia West H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Crest Management CompanyAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and stucco constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 12Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 12Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 12
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen/family room comboSeparate showerTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-23.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-21 Price Changed $315,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-21 Price Changed $315,990 Zillow
• 2026-07-15 Price Changed $318,990 HARMLS
• 2026-07-15 Price Changed $318,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $328,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $344,590 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $328,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $344,590 Zillow
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $328,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $328,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $344,590 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $344,590 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $344,590 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $339,790 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $339,790 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $333,790 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $333,790 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $339,490 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $339,490 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $341,340 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $341,340 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Listed $335,490 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Listed $413,990 HARMLS