3571 Winding Rd · Hearne, TX 77859

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 226 Days on market

Built 1982 $127/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No HOA and quick drive to BCS. This fixer-upper 3-bedroom, 2 bath home sits on 3 acres. The house sits on a solid slab foundation. There is so much potential for someone who can put some work into the property. The property is wooded and will make a peaceful retreat as a permanent residence or for someone who wants a small property to stay at for those Aggie games. This property will not go FHA or VA. Do not go onto property without listing agent.

Key facts

• Quick access to bcs
• Wooded
• Peaceful retreat

Tags

• QUICK ACCESS TO BCS
• SOLID SLAB FOUNDATION
• WOODED
• PEACEFUL RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-51/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Hearne — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#611 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Hearne ISD (town): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #816 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Robertson County in 2023 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,859 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $472,149
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -59.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $103,191
• Equity at exit: $171,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $304,053
• Equity at exit: $369,128

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77859

• Home prices YoY: 11.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,014/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $189,253

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 208 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 207 DOM
16. 2025-11-04
    listed $190,000 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    No HOA and quick drive to BCS. This 1500 S.F. fixer-upper 3-bedroom, 2 bath home sits on 3 acres. The house sits on a solid slab foundation. There is so much potential for someone who can put some work into the property. The property is wooded and will make a peaceful retreat as a permanent residence or for someone who wants a small property to stay at for those Aggie games. This property will not go FHA or VA. Do not go onto property without listing agent.

17. 2025-11-04
    listed $190,000 Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    No HOA and quick drive to BCS. This 1500 S.F. fixer-upper 3-bedroom, 2 bath home sits on 3 acres. The house sits on a solid slab foundation. There is so much potential for someone who can put some work into the property. The property is wooded and will make a peaceful retreat as a permanent residence or for someone who wants a small property to stay at for those Aggie games. This property will not go FHA or VA. Do not go onto property without listing agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,014 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,463/yr (+$122/mo · 72.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,014
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,506
• − Management: −$1,506
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$798
• After-tax cash flow: $747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hearne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822830
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,858
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9655
• State rank: #816 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hearne

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #611
• US rank: #11586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,516

Population outlook (Robertson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,926 people
• By 2030: 17,039 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 17,217 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 17,301 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 17,849 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 17,642 · +4.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 29% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Robertson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.4pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+35.1 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+19.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.97%
• Current HPI: 177.7117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Listed $190,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $190,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,014 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.