145 Serenity Village Dr · Grand Rivers, KY 42025

$529,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,868 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 2024 1.05 ac lot $185/sqft · 20% below area Est $666k · 20% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into a wooded setting just minutes from Kentucky Lake and its popular marinas, this beautiful nearly new home offers the perfect blend of luxury and nature. The open-concept design is filled with natural light and showcases stunning views of the surrounding woods and wildlife from nearly every room. High-end finishes are evident throughout, including a chef’s kitchen featuring premium ZLINE appliances, custom cabinetry, a large pantry and upscale details. Enjoy seamless indoor-outdoor living with three covered porches, each offering a peaceful place to relax and take in the serene setting. Whether it’s morning coffee or evening sunsets, the natural surroundings create a true retreat-like feel. An oversized garage is ready for lake toys, while unfinished space in the basement offers storage and future potential. This home delivers refined living in a prime location. Its just close enough to the lake for convenience, yet perfectly positioned for privacy and tranquility.

Key facts

• 1.05 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.05 acres
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $350; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Two covered garage spaces (garage faces side)
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered patio/porch; Porch; Level lot with wooded areas and views; Private water

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Stainless steel appliances; Partially finished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Concrete perimeter foundation

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (65.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (66.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (66.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 1.2% in Grand Rivers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#165 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jonathan Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 238 students, 72% FRL); Marshall County High School (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #151 of 254 statewide, top 61%, 1,256 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($514k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $177,744 (66.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.34% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.88%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 24.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $665,907
• List price: $529,900
• Delta: -17.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $163,368
• Equity at exit: $477,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $579,145
• Equity at exit: $1,029,479

Cash invested: $148,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42025

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 24.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,072/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-1,964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,263

Max offer price $182,986

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,475
• Closing costs: $15,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $529,900 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $529,900 Active 49 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

   Tucked into a wooded setting just minutes from Kentucky Lake and its popular marinas, this beautiful nearly new home offers the perfect blend of luxury and nature. The open-concept design is filled with natural light and showcases stunning views of the surrounding woods and wildlife from nearly every room. High-end finishes are evident throughout, including a chef’s kitchen featuring premium ZLINE appliances, custom cabinetry, a large pantry and upscale details. Enjoy seamless indoor-outdoor living with three covered porches, each offering a peaceful place to relax and take in the serene setting. Whether it’s morning coffee or evening sunsets, the natural surroundings create a true retreat-like feel. An oversized garage is ready for lake toys, while unfinished space in the basement offers storage and future potential. This home delivers refined living in a prime location. Its just close enough to the lake for convenience, yet perfectly positioned for privacy and tranquility.

3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $550,000 Active 49 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

   Tucked into a wooded setting just minutes from Kentucky Lake and its popular marinas, this beautiful nearly new home offers the perfect blend of luxury and nature. The open-concept design is filled with natural light and showcases stunning views of the surrounding woods and wildlife from nearly every room. High-end finishes are evident throughout, including a chef’s kitchen featuring premium ZLINE appliances, custom cabinetry, a large pantry and upscale details. Enjoy seamless indoor-outdoor living with three covered porches, each offering a peaceful place to relax and take in the serene setting. Whether it’s morning coffee or evening sunsets, the natural surroundings create a true retreat-like feel. An oversized garage is ready for lake toys, while unfinished space in the basement offers storage and future potential. This home delivers refined living in a prime location. Its just close enough to the lake for convenience, yet perfectly positioned for privacy and tranquility.

4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $550,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $550,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $550,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $550,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $550,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $550,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $550,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $550,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $550,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $550,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $550,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $550,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    listed $550,000 Active 2010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Tucked into a wooded setting just minutes from Kentucky Lake and its popular marinas, this beautiful nearly new home offers the perfect blend of luxury and nature. The open-concept design is filled with natural light and showcases stunning views of the surrounding woods and wildlife from nearly every room. High-end finishes are evident throughout, including a chef’s kitchen featuring premium ZLINE appliances, custom cabinetry, a large pantry and upscale details. Enjoy seamless indoor-outdoor living with three covered porches, each offering a peaceful place to relax and take in the serene setting. Whether it’s morning coffee or evening sunsets, the natural surroundings create a true retreat-like feel. An oversized garage is ready for lake toys, while unfinished space in the basement offers storage and future potential. This home delivers refined living in a prime location. Its just close enough to the lake for convenience, yet perfectly positioned for privacy and tranquility.

18. 2026-04-30
    listed $550,000 Active 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Tucked into a wooded setting just minutes from Kentucky Lake and its popular marinas, this beautiful nearly new home offers the perfect blend of luxury and nature. The open-concept design is filled with natural light and showcases stunning views of the surrounding woods and wildlife from nearly every room. High-end finishes are evident throughout, including a chef’s kitchen featuring premium ZLINE appliances, custom cabinetry, a large pantry and upscale details. Enjoy seamless indoor-outdoor living with three covered porches, each offering a peaceful place to relax and take in the serene setting. Whether it’s morning coffee or evening sunsets, the natural surroundings create a true retreat-like feel. An oversized garage is ready for lake toys, while unfinished space in the basement offers storage and future potential. This home delivers refined living in a prime location. Its just close enough to the lake for convenience, yet perfectly positioned for privacy and tranquility.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,072 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,557 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$485/yr (+$40/mo · 11.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,683
• − Property taxes: −$4,072
• − Insurance: −$2,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$15,415
• Taxable loss: −$34,251
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 2103810
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 28.62/100
• National rank: #6710
• State rank: #73 of 165 in KY

Livability — Grand Rivers

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #8446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,238

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,647 people
• By 2030: 30,276 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 29,232 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 27,940 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 25,289 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 21,188 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.7) · D 21.0% · R 77.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -56.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.7 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.11%
• Current HPI: 288.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $529,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $529,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $550,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $550,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

+522.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,072 · +522.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.