2240 Golden Oak Ln #104 · Merced, CA 95341

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 177 Days on market

Built 2024 $125/sqft · 103% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful & Spacious Brand New Double Wide Modular home. Featuring a bright spacious open floor plan, 3 bedrooms, 2 Full bath, Inside laundry, central AC/Heat. Popular Sierra Portal gated Senior Community, features clubhouse with Kitchen, Fitness room, Billiards, Bingo, sparkling pool, spa, sauna, Dog park Etc. 1 month space rent included!

Key facts

• Billiards
• Spa
• Sauna

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE WITH KITCHEN
• FITNESS ROOM
• BILLIARDS
• BINGO
• SPA
• SAUNA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.4% in Merced — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#153 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $120k implies a 402% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.68%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,000
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 103.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,183
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $24,062
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95341

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,204

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $455	-5% $414	+0% $372	+5% $331	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $240	-5% $306	+0% $372	+5% $438	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $433	-0.5pp $403	base $372	+0.5pp $341	+1.0pp $310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1976 Edwards Ave Unit 1 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,125	$1.32	14d	1	0.30mi
2157 Yosemite Pkwy Unit 32 Merced, CA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,400	$1.62	14d	1	0.30mi
1560 Ellen Ct Apt 4 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	14d	1	0.41mi
1532 Ellen Ct Unit 1532 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,200	$1.43	14d	1	0.43mi
Ellen Ct Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,095	$1.30	4d	1	0.44mi
1557 Ellen Ct Unit 1557 Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,200	$1.59	14d	1	0.47mi
2560 Midge Ave Merced, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	708	$1,150	$1.62	8d	8	1.01mi
2597 Glen Ave Unit 2591glen Merced, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	14d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 159 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 158 DOM
17. 2025-06-16
    historical
18. 2025-04-10
    price $119,900
19. 2025-04-09
    price $119,900
20. 2025-03-05
    listed $129,900 Active
21. 2025-01-30
    historical
22. 2025-01-30
    listed $129,900 Active
23. 2025-01-30
    historical
24. 2024-10-23
    price $129,900
25. 2024-10-23
    price $129,900
26. 2024-07-31
    listed $135,000 Active
27. 2024-07-30
    listed $135,000 Active
28. 2015-09-25
    historical
29. 2015-09-23
    soldstatus $23,900 Closed Sale
30. 2015-08-27
    status Pending Sale
31. 2015-07-25
    price $23,900
32. 2014-10-08
    price $28,900
33. 2014-05-21
    listed $32,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$2,067
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $2,813
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$675
• After-tax cash flow: $3,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Merced

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #5111

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merced, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 112,228
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,385
• Household income: $57,342
• Rent vs Own: 61.5% rent · 38.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% White 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 55% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.65%
• Current HPI: 314.4223
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+274.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $119,900 GEMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $119,900 CRMLS
• 2025-03-05 Listed $129,900 CRMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-01-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listed $129,900 GEMLS
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $129,900 CRMLS
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $129,900 GEMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listed $135,000 GEMLS
• 2024-07-30 Listed $135,000 CRMLS
• 2015-09-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-09-23 Sold (MLS) $23,900 CRMLS
• 2015-08-27 Pending — CRMLS
• 2015-07-25 Price Changed $23,900 CRMLS
• 2014-10-08 Price Changed $28,900 CRMLS
• 2014-05-21 Listed $32,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-6.2%/yr

Latest (2014): $230 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.