209 Coyote Crk · Abilene, TX 79602

$258,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,203 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Built 2026 3,055 sqft lot Est $271k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21131544 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Harrison Plan from our Liberty Series offers a perfect blend of comfort, practicality, and exceptional value. This 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,203 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll pass the versatile flex room before reaching the staircase to the upper level, a convenient closet, and half bathroom. The heart of the home is the open kitchen and living area, complete with a central island, a dining area, and a spacious family room — perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Upstairs, the private primary suite awaits, featuring an ensuit

Key facts

• 3,055 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association (no association fees)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story; New construction (incomplete, 2026)
• Construction: Built 2026 (new construction - incomplete); Brick and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Condo/townhome lot; Subdivision: Cedar Creek On Maple Grove

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (three bedrooms on the second level, one bedroom located on the second level listed as Primary); Primary bedroom with dual sinks and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Two living areas; One dining area; 9 total rooms; Two levels

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $845 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $236k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,680 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.99%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,969
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Coyote Crk	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,203 (0%)	1mo	$258,990	$118	100
3510 Silver Springs Ct	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,203 (0%)	1mo	$277,990	$126	99
133 Coyote Creek Ct	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,203 (0%)	1mo	$279,990	$127	80
132 Dotty Lou	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,001 (-9%)	3mo	$245,490	$123	75
156 Dotty Lou	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,001 (-9%)	3mo	$245,211	$123	75
220 Dotty Lou	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-9%)	3mo	$237,280	$119	75
107 Dotty Lou	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,001 (-9%)	3mo	$245,990	$123	75
144 Dotty Lou	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-9%)	4mo	$254,822	$127	74
120 Dotty Lou	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-9%)	4mo	$248,488	$124	74
219 Polasek Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,001 (-9%)	0mo	$260,990	$130	74
162 Dotty Lou St	0.16mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,408 (+9%)	3mo	$271,489	$113	70
138 Dotty Lou	0.16mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,408 (+9%)	3mo	$266,990	$111	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $29,542
• Equity at exit: $38,616

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $175,476
• Equity at exit: $22,393

Cash invested: $72,517 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $845

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $258,990

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,748
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Marlin Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,250	$1.69	18d	1	1.20mi
1097 Lytle Creek Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,895	$1.99	13d	1	1.27mi
3926 Duke Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,250	$1.40	7d	1	1.30mi
2929 Sayles Blvd Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2384	$6,000	$2.52	13d	1	1.35mi
3533 Grand Ave Abilene, TX	5.0	2.0	1629	$2,200	$1.35	43d	1	1.45mi
801 Big Water Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,800	$1.82	13d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $258,990
3. 2026-04-22
   status Active
4. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-12
   listed $275,544 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,507
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,202
• − Management: −$3,202
• − Depreciation: −$7,534
• Taxable income: $6,400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,536
• After-tax cash flow: $8,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $258,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $275,544 NTREIS