422 Mchenry Valley Rd · Almond, NY 14804

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1995 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Just outside the village of Almond, this 1995 double wide offers nearly 2,000 sq. ft. of living space on an almost 1/2 acre lot. Designed with both comfort and convenience in mind, the home features an inviting living rooms including a cozy family room that opens to the large kitchen and eat in dining area as well as a formal dining room perfect for gatherings. The gorgeous primary suite is a true retreat , boasting a whirlpool tub, walk-in shower, dual vanity, and a good size walk in closet. Two additional bedrooms with generous closets and another full bath provide plenty of space for family or guests. A laundry room conveniently sits just off the kitchen with access to the back door and

Key facts

• Dual vanity
• Primary suite
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WHIRLPOOL TUB
• WALK IN SHOWER
• DUAL VANITY
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#801 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Alfred-Almond Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #345 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Alfred-Almond Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 279 students, 47% FRL); Alfred-Almond Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 272 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 27% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $125,250 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.99%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $13,989
• Equity at exit: $72,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $56,683
• Equity at exit: $115,713

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14804

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,573/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,451

Max offer price $125,250

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-97	+0% $-140	+5% $-182	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-190	+0% $-140	+5% $-89	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-101	base $-140	+0.5pp $-178	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-12-01
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-24
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-09-26
   status Active
4. 2025-09-01
   status Pending
5. 2025-08-20
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,573 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,573 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,573
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$4,234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,016
• After-tax cash flow: $-658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alfred-Almond Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602700
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,682
• Composite: 44.62/100
• National rank: #2772
• State rank: #345 of 590 in NY

Livability — Almond

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #801
• US rank: #15500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,501

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Asian 3% Two or more races 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.59%
• Current HPI: 261.9254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-11-24 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-01 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-20 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,573 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.