2154 Chris Dr · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$272,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,880 sqft · Land · 42 Days on market

Built 2025 6,534 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Beautiful Corner Lot!! This expansive two-story Columbus has a well-designed layout, featuring a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. The open concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room and family room, with a patio extending the interior space outdoors. Upstairs, a spacious loft separates the three secondary bedrooms from the serene owner's suite. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage. Peace Creek Reserve is a masterplan community of new single-family homes with a beautiful natural creek. Winter Haven is the chain of lakes city, with over 26 linked together by canal. There are lots of shops, restaurants, bike paths. Peac

Key facts

• Chain of lakes
• Open concept design
• Natural creek

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• PATIO
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• NATURAL CREEK
• CHAIN OF LAKES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $272k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wahneta Elementary School (math 38% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 507 students, 69% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $272k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,091 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-52,057
• Equity at exit: $40,629

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-62,162
• Equity at exit: $23,560

Cash invested: $76,297 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,251 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,429
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,665/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,359

Max offer price $257,346

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,122
• Closing costs: $8,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1801	$2,030	$1.13	3d	1	0.05mi
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,030	$1.11	23d	1	0.05mi
2102 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,100	$1.15	14d	1	0.09mi
4019 Penelope Ave Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$1,950	$1.08	14d	1	0.17mi
1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,250	$1.45	23d	1	0.25mi
1993 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,998	$1.09	23d	1	0.26mi
368 Kayden Cv Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,290	$1.08	23d	1	0.41mi
521 Reggie Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2093	$2,450	$1.17	3d	1	0.44mi
1116 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2174	$1,975	$0.91	19d	1	0.59mi
1116 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2174	$1,975	$0.91	23d	1	0.59mi
693 Reggie Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1933	$2,300	$1.19	23d	1	0.60mi
1417 Austin St Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,290	$1.22	11d	1	0.64mi
748 Reggie Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1933	$2,600	$1.35	23d	1	0.67mi
1172 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1509	$2,200	$1.46	10d	1	0.70mi
1498 Austin St Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,000	$1.03	23d	1	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $272,490
3. 2026-03-24
   price $285,490
4. 2026-03-16
   price $290,490
5. 2026-03-16
   soldstatus $174,600
6. 2026-02-23
   listed $285,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,665 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,665 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,264
• − Property taxes: −$3,665
• − Insurance: −$1,362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,161
• − Management: −$2,161
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$7,927
• Taxable loss: −$5,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,373
• After-tax cash flow: $344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $272,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $285,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $290,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $174,600 Public Records
• 2026-02-23 Listed $285,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,665 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.