2419 39th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$128,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1951 8,613 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! $40,000 BELOW TAX APPRAISAL! 2/1/2 Home with Flex Room - great as office or dining room - on corner lot! Roof approx 5-7 years old. Central heat unit and water heater approx 5 yrs old. Storm shelter in backyard. This home is solid and has good bones, just needs cosmetic repairs, such as cleaning, paint, some windows. Detached garage would be great as a workshop also! Storage building.

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Solid counters
• Walking trails

Tags

• NEW AC UNIT
• SOLID COUNTERS
• NEAR TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY
• WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Nearby park

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected and available; Natural gas connected and available; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on 1,040 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Rear porch; Fenced backyard with wood fencing; Workshop on property; Level city corner lot with front and back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Attic fan; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window screens, storm windows and window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($220/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Brown El Gr 02 To 05 (math 27% / reading 12%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 238 students, 95% FRL); Slaton Middle (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 355 students, 96% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 60% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $888 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,761 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-18,650
• Equity at exit: $19,160

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-10,545
• Equity at exit: $11,110

Cash invested: $35,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$674
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,740/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,104

Max offer price $128,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $55	+0% $18	+5% $-18	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $-26	+0% $18	+5% $63	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $51	base $18	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,125
• Closing costs: $3,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	23d	1	0.14mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	45d	1	0.14mi
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	23d	1	0.17mi
2304 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	830	$1,150	$1.39	23d	1	0.20mi
2521 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$925	$0.93	45d	1	0.21mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	15d	1	0.21mi
2302 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$749	$0.94	23d	1	0.22mi
2605 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$995	$1.13	15d	1	0.24mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	23d	1	0.26mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	23d	1	0.26mi
2616 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	23d	1	0.27mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	15d	1	0.29mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	15d	1	0.30mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	45d	1	0.30mi
2504 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	939	$995	$1.06	45d	1	0.31mi
2701 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$1,195	$1.49	15d	1	0.33mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	15d	23	0.33mi
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	45d	1	0.36mi
2420 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$799	$1.00	23d	1	0.38mi
2607 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,325	$1.34	45d	1	0.39mi
2208 35th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	767	$750	$0.98	45d	1	0.40mi
2409 45th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	45d	1	0.40mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.41mi
2401 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$845	$1.24	15d	3	0.41mi
2723 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	802	$950	$1.18	23d	1	0.42mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	45d	1	0.43mi
2412 46th St Apt A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$795	$0.84	23d	1	0.44mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	45d	1	0.44mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	23d	1	0.44mi
2402 46th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$745	$0.79	23d	1	0.44mi
2315 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	23d	1	0.46mi
2706 44th St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$680	$0.76	45d	1	0.46mi
2701 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	657	$1,075	$1.64	15d	25	0.47mi
2107 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$800	$0.78	45d	1	0.48mi
2211 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1293	$1,200	$0.93	45d	1	0.48mi
2419 31st St Apt B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	878	$795	$0.91	15d	1	0.49mi
2411 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	0.49mi
2816 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	826	$825	$1.00	23d	1	0.50mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	23d	1	0.52mi
2812 43rd St Unit 6 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$700	$0.63	45d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $128,500 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,500 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,500 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,500 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 280-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $128,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,352 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$611/yr (+$51/mo · 35.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,740
• − Insurance: −$642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$3,738
• Taxable loss: −$1,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+117.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $128,500 LARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-04 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $46,800 LARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $49,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $52,900 LARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $55,200 LARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $59,000 LARMLS
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,740 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.