236 South Rd · Pine Plains, NY 12581

$689,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2006 2.27 ac lot $197/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious legal mother-daughter ranch offering 3 bedrooms, 3 full baths, and 2 half baths—ideal for extended or multi-generational living. The upper level features two bedrooms plus a versatile office space, a bright kitchen, and a formal dining area. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a private full bath, with sliding glass doors off of living room leading to a secluded deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The lower level provides a fully equipped separate living area with its own kitchen, dining space, one bedroom with a full bath, a comfortable den, and an additional half bath. Also featured is a soundproof recording studio—ideal for musicians, content

Key facts

• Secluded deck
• Private full bath
• 2.27 acre lot

Tags

• LEGAL MOTHER-DAUGHTER RANCH
• VERSATILE OFFICE SPACE
• PRIVATE FULL BATH
• SECLUDED DECK
• SOUNDPROOF RECORDING STUDIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway parking; Off-street parking; Private parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Propane available
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Heating details — see remarks; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Finished basement; Scuttle attic; Total of 9 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $689k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (57.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (54.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (57.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#746 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Plains Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #372 of 755 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cold Spring Early Learning Center (165 students, 12% FRL); Stissing Mountain Junior/Senior High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 460 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+31 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pine Plains Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$118k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($668k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $689k implies a 884% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,869 (57.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.05%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,096,495
• List price: $689,000
• Delta: -67.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $231,374
• Equity at exit: $620,706

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $794,579
• Equity at exit: $1,338,575

Cash invested: $192,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12581

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 18.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,613
• Tax from tax record: −$831 /mo · $9,970/yr
• Insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$657
• Net cashflow: $-2,259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,989

Max offer price $289,869

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,869	-5% $-2,064	+0% $-2,259	+5% $-2,454	+10% $-2,649
Rent	-10% $-2,507	-5% $-2,383	+0% $-2,259	+5% $-2,136	+10% $-2,012
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,912	-0.5pp $-2,084	base $-2,259	+0.5pp $-2,438	+1.0pp $-2,620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $172,250
• Closing costs: $20,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $689,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $689,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $689,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $689,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $689,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $689,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $689,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $689,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $689,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $689,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $689,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $689,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $689,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $689,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $689,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $689,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $689,000 1019-char remark
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $699,000 Active 1019-char remark
19. 2025-09-30
    historical
20. 2025-09-19
    historical
21. 2006-03-20
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,970 · $831/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,807 · $901/mo
• Expected delta: +$837/yr (+$70/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,595
• − Property taxes: −$9,970
• − Insurance: −$3,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,004
• − Management: −$3,004
• − Depreciation: −$20,044
• Taxable loss: −$40,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,724
• After-tax cash flow: $-17,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Plains Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623040
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,189
• Composite: 48.33/100
• National rank: #4688
• State rank: #372 of 755 in NY

Livability — Pine Plains

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #746
• US rank: #14240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,498
• Population (ZIP): 1,928

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.70%
• Current HPI: 270.6533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+884.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $689,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,970 · +43.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.