27 Ridge View Dr · Lake Carmel, NY 12563

$725,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2000 1.26 ac lot Est $735k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIRST TIME ON THE MARKET! Beautiful home has room for all, pride in ownership abounds. Gourmet kitchen w/Viking gas stove, double ovens, drawer microwave, quartz countertops, massive refrigerator/freezer. Eat in kitchen with cozy fireplace opens up to living room. SGD to your deck overlooking large level lot w/in-ground sprinkler system, 75' rock retaining wall, Invisible Fence for the dogs & a huge 20X40' Gunnite inground pool. Formal dining room, laundry/powder room w/Maytag front loader washer/dryer, oversized two car garage. Master suite w/walk in closet/built in shelves, jacuzzi tub, shower, 2nd bed has wall of built- in shelving, 3rd & 4th bedrooms spaciously sized. Full finished walk out basement w/large office, full bath, storage, central air, Boiler "guts" replaced 1yr.ago & hot water heater and SGD to patio & pool. Close to all! Patterson Rec, Thunder Ridge Skiing,park w/lake, shops, train, Rt.684 & I84. Owner including snow blower! Taxes $14,565. AFTER STAR! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Eat-in-kitchen
• Large center island

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• EAT-IN-KITCHEN
• STONE COUNTERS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• GAS COOKTOP
• DOUBLE-OVENS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $725k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $725k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.3% in Lake Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Matthew Paterson Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 488 students, 41% FRL); George Fischer Middle School (math 21% / reading 56%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 1,130 students, 38% FRL); Carmel High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,365 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $525k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $725,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $734,526
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
190 Route 292	0.59mi	4/2.0	3,290 (-2%)	4mo	$630,000	$191	60
270 Cushman Rd	0.45mi	4/3.5	3,256 (-3%)	22mo	$806,000	$248	56
49 Vista Ln	0.42mi	4/2.5	3,200 (-5%)	20mo	$699,999	$219	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-71,097
• Equity at exit: $108,100

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-845
• Equity at exit: $62,685

Cash invested: $203,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12563

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,802
• Tax from tax record: −$1,495 /mo · $17,943/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,680
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,088

Max offer price $725,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,131	-5% $926	+0% $721	+5% $515	+10% $310
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $405	+0% $721	+5% $1,037	+10% $1,353
Rate	-1.0pp $1,086	-0.5pp $905	base $721	+0.5pp $533	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,250
• Closing costs: $21,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Cushman Rd Patterson, NY	3.0	2.0	2286	$8,000	$3.50	12d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $725,000 Active
3. 2018-05-31
   soldstatus $525,100
4. 2018-05-25
   soldstatus $525,100 Sold 1125-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

   FIRST TIME ON THE MARKET! Beautiful home has room for all, pride in ownership abounds. Gourmet kitchen w/Viking gas stove, double ovens, drawer microwave, quartz countertops, massive refrigerator/freezer. Eat in kitchen with cozy fireplace opens up to living room. SGD to your deck overlooking large level lot w/in-ground sprinkler system, 75' rock retaining wall, Invisible Fence for the dogs & a huge 20X40' Gunnite inground pool. Formal dining room, laundry/powder room w/Maytag front loader washer/dryer, oversized two car garage. Master suite w/walk in closet/built in shelves, jacuzzi tub, shower, 2nd bed has wall of built- in shelving, 3rd & 4th bedrooms spaciously sized. Full finished walk out basement w/large office, full bath, storage, central air, Boiler "guts" replaced 1yr.ago & hot water heater and SGD to patio & pool. Close to all! Patterson Rec, Thunder Ridge Skiing,park w/lake, shops, train, Rt.684 & I84. Owner including snow blower! Taxes $14,565. AFTER STAR! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

5. 2018-03-16
   historical Pending 1125-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

   FIRST TIME ON THE MARKET! Beautiful home has room for all, pride in ownership abounds. Gourmet kitchen w/Viking gas stove, double ovens, drawer microwave, quartz countertops, massive refrigerator/freezer. Eat in kitchen with cozy fireplace opens up to living room. SGD to your deck overlooking large level lot w/in-ground sprinkler system, 75' rock retaining wall, Invisible Fence for the dogs & a huge 20X40' Gunnite inground pool. Formal dining room, laundry/powder room w/Maytag front loader washer/dryer, oversized two car garage. Master suite w/walk in closet/built in shelves, jacuzzi tub, shower, 2nd bed has wall of built- in shelving, 3rd & 4th bedrooms spaciously sized. Full finished walk out basement w/large office, full bath, storage, central air, Boiler "guts" replaced 1yr.ago & hot water heater and SGD to patio & pool. Close to all! Patterson Rec, Thunder Ridge Skiing,park w/lake, shops, train, Rt.684 & I84. Owner including snow blower! Taxes $14,565. AFTER STAR! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

6. 2018-02-17
   listed $525,000 Active 1125-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1125 chars)

   FIRST TIME ON THE MARKET! Beautiful home has room for all, pride in ownership abounds. Gourmet kitchen w/Viking gas stove, double ovens, drawer microwave, quartz countertops, massive refrigerator/freezer. Eat in kitchen with cozy fireplace opens up to living room. SGD to your deck overlooking large level lot w/in-ground sprinkler system, 75' rock retaining wall, Invisible Fence for the dogs & a huge 20X40' Gunnite inground pool. Formal dining room, laundry/powder room w/Maytag front loader washer/dryer, oversized two car garage. Master suite w/walk in closet/built in shelves, jacuzzi tub, shower, 2nd bed has wall of built- in shelving, 3rd & 4th bedrooms spaciously sized. Full finished walk out basement w/large office, full bath, storage, central air, Boiler "guts" replaced 1yr.ago & hot water heater and SGD to patio & pool. Close to all! Patterson Rec, Thunder Ridge Skiing,park w/lake, shops, train, Rt.684 & I84. Owner including snow blower! Taxes $14,565. AFTER STAR! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Below Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Attached,

7. 2000-06-29
   soldstatus $50,000
8. 1997-06-11
   soldstatus $212,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $17,943 · $1,495/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,943 · $1,495/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $96,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,611
• − Property taxes: −$17,943
• − Insurance: −$3,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,680
• − Management: −$7,680
• − Depreciation: −$21,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$631
• After-tax cash flow: $9,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606570
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $87,665
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1914
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Carmel

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #12139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,456

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.07%
• Current HPI: 247.1582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+241.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $725,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $525,100 Public Records
• 2018-05-25 Sold (MLS) $525,100 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-16 Contingent — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-17 Listed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $212,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $17,943 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.