102 Williamson Cv · Elgin, TX 78621

$289,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2006 7,623 sqft lot Est $336k · 14% under $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Get ready to live in your BRAND NEW HOME!Restrictions: Yes

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac location
• Brand new appliances
• New water heater

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOCATION
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• BRAND NEW CARPET
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW AIR HANDLER UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of County Line HOA; Annual association fee of $313 covering common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with a single door; Two covered garage spaces (garage faces front); Total of four parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Faces southeast
• Construction: Masonry construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by Armadillo Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Wood fencing; Level lot with moderate trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Main-level primary suite; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-611 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (37.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,942 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.03%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $335,610
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
618 Lavaca Loop	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,075 (+2%)	3mo	$289,900	$140	81
13709 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,974 (-3%)	3mo	$324,990	$165	76
25605 Flora Bella Ln	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,162 (+6%)	2mo	$319,995	$148	64
333 Sullivan Way	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,029 (-0%)	3mo	$316,598	$156	63
13801 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-8%)	5mo	$340,065	$181	61
400 Sullivan Way	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,070 (+2%)	3mo	$329,990	$159	60
13821 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (+9%)	2mo	$329,990	$149	60
13717 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (+9%)	2mo	$363,950	$165	59
13601 Hamilton Hart Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-10%)	1mo	$329,890	$179	58
25620 Wheat Seed Ln	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,319 (+14%)	2mo	$324,990	$140	54
13817 Tucker Hedge Pass	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (-15%)	3mo	$326,700	$189	50
404 Sullivan Way	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-13%)	2mo	$298,748	$168	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $119,429
• Equity at exit: $261,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $383,243
• Equity at exit: $563,212

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$622 /mo · $7,466/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,898

Max offer price $181,942

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-447	-5% $-529	+0% $-611	+5% $-693	+10% $-775
Rent	-10% $-779	-5% $-695	+0% $-611	+5% $-527	+10% $-443
Rate	-1.0pp $-465	-0.5pp $-537	base $-611	+0.5pp $-686	+1.0pp $-763

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	0.07mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	0.23mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	45d	1	0.24mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	19d	1	0.27mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.50mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	6d	1	0.52mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	45d	1	0.65mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	0.65mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	6d	1	0.72mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	0d	1	0.73mi
18408 Cloudmore Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,150	$0.89	0d	1	0.80mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	0.85mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	0.87mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	26d	1	0.87mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	0.87mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	0.90mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	45d	1	0.90mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	0.92mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	4d	1	0.93mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	26d	1	0.94mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	26d	1	0.96mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	45d	1	0.96mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	26d	1	0.96mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.96mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	4d	1	0.99mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	1.00mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	1.04mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	22d	1	1.06mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	0d	1	1.09mi
209 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	5.0	3.0	2196	$2,200	$1.00	26d	1	1.11mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	3d	1	1.13mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	26d	1	1.13mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	1.14mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	5d	1	1.15mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	6d	1	1.17mi
17001 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,945	$0.77	22d	1	1.18mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	6d	1	1.21mi
18501 Spotted Eagle Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	3.5	2891	$2,800	$0.97	5d	1	1.21mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	0d	1	1.25mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $289,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,466 · $622/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,466 · $622/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$7,466
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$12,488
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,997
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 1,540
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+74.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $289,900 Unlock MLS
• 2007-05-15 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2007-04-25 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2007-04-02 Listed $165,872 Unlock MLS
• 2007-01-03 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2006-08-25 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,466 · -12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.