Colony at Pinehurst 1551 Plan · Pinehurst, TX 77362

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,551 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Colony at Pinehurst offers exceptional value in Montgomery County, combining peaceful surroundings with everyday conveniences that make life easier. Trails, parks, and the upcoming amenity center give homeowners space to stay active, connect with neighbors, and enjoy time outdoors without leaving the community. With TX-249 just minutes away, residents gain quick access to nearby dining, shopping, and employment hubs-creating a setting where daily routines run smoother and there's always time to enjoy the moments that matter.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 120 days

🏗️ New construction. The $239,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,590.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-370 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.1% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 39% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,155 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,590
• List price: $239,990
• Delta: -13.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4016 Colony River Rock Blvd	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+5%)	6mo	$249,990	$153	85
3007 Wicker Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,641 (+6%)	10mo	$259,990	$158	72
4558 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-2%)	6mo	$246,990	$163	72
4225 Red Cedar Ring Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-6%)	12mo	$259,990	$177	70
4350 Maple Root Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,570 (+1%)	13mo	$276,310	$176	69
4535 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-7%)	4mo	$235,000	$163	66
2971 Colonia Blossom Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-10%)	9mo	$245,990	$176	63
4642 Coral Bean St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,657 (+7%)	4mo	$273,990	$165	59
4519 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-10%)	8mo	$234,990	$168	58
4606 Mesquite Trail Blush	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,689 (+9%)	1mo	$278,400	$165	56
4515 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,768 (+14%)	7mo	$277,990	$157	50
4418 Azalea Blossom Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,768 (+14%)	9mo	$264,990	$150	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-68,338
• Equity at exit: $41,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-89,710
• Equity at exit: $23,914

Cash invested: $77,445 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 29.2 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,990 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 143 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77362

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,450
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,149/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,420

Max offer price $223,090

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-179	-5% $-274	+0% $-370	+5% $-465	+10% $-561
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-447	+0% $-370	+5% $-293	+10% $-216
Rate	-1.0pp $-230	-0.5pp $-299	base $-370	+0.5pp $-441	+1.0pp $-514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,147
• Closing costs: $8,298
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4311 Maple Root Ln Pinehurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	184d	1	0.27mi
4538 Pinehurst Trace Dr Pinehurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$1,995	$1.22	24d	1	0.39mi
4538 Pinehurst Trace Dr Pinehurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$1,995	$1.22	10d	1	0.39mi
1114 Coe Rd Pinehurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,427	$0.84	21d	1	1.24mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Colony at Pinehurst 1551)Active new construction listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,551 (as listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Colony at Pinehurst 1551)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $239,990 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $239,990 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $239,990 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $239,990 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $239,990 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $239,990 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $239,990 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $239,990 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $239,990 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $239,990 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $239,990 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $239,990 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $239,990 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $239,990 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $239,990 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $239,990 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $239,990 Active 104 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $239,990 Active 103 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $239,990 Active 102 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $239,990 Active 101 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $239,990 Active 100 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $239,990 Active 99 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $239,990 Active 98 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $239,990 Active 97 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $239,990 Active 96 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $239,990 Active 95 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $239,990 Active 94 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $239,990 Active 93 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $239,990 Active 92 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $239,990 Active 91 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $239,990 Active 90 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $239,990 Active 89 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $239,990 Active 88 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $239,990 Active 87 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $239,990 Active 86 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $239,990 Active 85 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $239,990 Active 84 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 83 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $239,990 Active 82 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $239,990 Active 81 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $239,990 Active 80 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $239,990 Active 79 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $239,990 Active 78 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $239,990 Active 77 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $239,990 Active 76 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $239,990 Active 75 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $239,990 Active 74 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $239,990 Active 73 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $239,990 Active 72 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $239,990 Active 71 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,493
• − Property taxes: −$4,149
• − Insurance: −$1,383
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$8,046
• Taxable loss: −$9,400
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,256
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,755–$23,265 screening

This single-family home in Colony at Pinehurst is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor updates can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Magnolia J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 55/100

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Montgomery · 713,896 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,474
• Household income: $80,982
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.65%
• Current HPI: 284.6412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $249,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Colony at Pinehurst 1551)Active new construction listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,551 (as listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Colony at Pinehurst 1551)