2190 Arbour Walk Cir #2221 · Pine Ridge, FL 34109

$205,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 989 sqft · Condo public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1992 $699/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! Situated in NORTH NAPLES, West of I-75, this desirable community is just 12 minutes to VANDERBILT BEACH, 8 minutes to MERCATO'S premier shopping and dining, and 15 minutes to beautiful Downtown Naples. OASIS offers an enviable location. PRICED TO SELL, this is A SECOND FLOOR, 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence in pristine, MOVE-IN ready. The home features an UPGRADED KITCHEN with STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES and GRANITE countertops, along with large walk-in closets and a FULLY RENOVATED PRIMARY BATHROOM. A NEWER ROOF (2019) for your peace of mind (Wind Mitigation Report available). Residents enjoy GREAT amenities including a resort-style pool, spa, tennis courts, and a

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Upgraded kitchen
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• VANDERBILT BEACH
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with professional management; Monthly condo fee; Monthly condo fee amount is charged (fee covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, exterior pest control, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, and water); Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community room, community spa/hot tub, exercise room, internet access, play area, and tennis court; Non-gated community with tennis

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking
• Utilities: Assessment-paid water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property in a low-rise (1-3) building; Garden-style, multi-story home; Rear exposure faces north; Built in 1992; Located in the OASIS development
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Single-hung windows; Shingle roof; Central irrigation; View of parking lot; No canal/dock

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms with split-bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Smoke detector
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Dining area in living room; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (22.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pelican Marsh Elementary School (math 87% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 709 students, 29% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 74% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $605 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $205k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,209 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-23,713
• Equity at exit: $62,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-27,694
• Equity at exit: $77,679

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,311/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$699
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,492

Max offer price $159,209

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-143	-5% $-201	+0% $-259	+5% $-317	+10% $-375
Rent	-10% $-430	-5% $-345	+0% $-259	+5% $-174	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-207	base $-259	+0.5pp $-312	+1.0pp $-366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2094 Arbour Walk Cir Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	648	$1,588	$2.45	25d	2	0.03mi
2118 Arbour Walk Cir Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	25d	1	0.04mi
2130 Arbour Walk Cir #2724 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,800	$1.76	25d	1	0.04mi
2070 Arbour Walk Cir #3214 Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	760	$1,600	$2.11	23d	1	0.13mi
2058 Arbour Walk Cir #3322 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	918	$2,000	$2.18	25d	1	0.13mi
2226 Arbour Walk Cir #1913 Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	740	$1,475	$1.99	25d	1	0.16mi
2277 Arbour Walk Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	937	$2,540	$2.71	16d	25	0.22mi
2602 Fountain View Cir Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$2,277	$2.29	15d	41	0.47mi
7712 Jewel Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,850	$1.81	25d	1	0.85mi
7719 Jewel Ln #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$3,800	$3.72	25d	1	0.87mi
7800 Emerald Cir #104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$2,200	$2.15	23d	1	0.87mi
7800 Emerald Cir Unit B104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$2,200	$2.15	16d	1	0.87mi
7794 Emerald Cir Unit A-102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$4,000	$3.91	16d	1	0.90mi
7754 Emerald Cir Unit T202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$3,850	$3.77	16d	1	0.96mi
7791 Esmeralda Way #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,950	$1.91	16d	1	0.98mi
7750 Jewel Ln #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,100	$1.91	16d	1	1.00mi
7756 Jewel Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$3,700	$3.62	25d	1	1.03mi
501 Forest Lakes Blvd #111 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	919	$2,300	$2.50	16d	1	1.13mi
499 Forest Lakes Blvd #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	919	$1,950	$2.12	16d	1	1.14mi
301 Ridge Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$6,000	$6.67	25d	1	1.15mi
300 Forest Lakes Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$2,700	$3.21	25d	2	1.18mi
400 Forest Lakes Blvd Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$2,350	$2.79	23d	4	1.19mi
200 Forest Lakes Blvd #111 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$3,100	$3.68	16d	1	1.21mi
100 Forest Lakes Blvd Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	2.0	842	$3,500	$4.16	16d	3	1.23mi
175 Turtle Lake Ct Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	740	$1,650	$2.23	16d	2	1.24mi
5301 Summerwind Dr Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,864	$2.23	16d	12	1.24mi
150 Turtle Lake Ct #307 Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	638	$1,500	$2.35	25d	1	1.26mi
516 Gordonia Rd Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	25d	1	1.29mi
225 Turtle Lake Ct Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	740	$1,900	$2.57	25d	2	1.30mi
1554 Oyster Catcher Pt Unit C Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1124	$2,900	$2.58	25d	1	1.35mi
5934 Premier Way Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1350	$3,618	$2.68	16d	29	1.36mi
200 Turtle Lake Ct #109 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$1,295	$1.54	25d	1	1.37mi
170 Turtle Lake Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$2,975	$3.53	16d	1	1.39mi
1545 Oyster Catcher Pt Unit A Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1124	$2,200	$1.96	16d	1	1.39mi
260 Quail Forest Blvd Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,533	$2.89	16d	22	1.40mi
1086 Forest Lakes Dr Unit 9303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	16d	1	1.42mi
190 Turtle Lake Ct Unit 6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$2,100	$2.49	16d	1	1.43mi
180 Turtle Lake Ct #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	842	$1,850	$2.20	23d	1	1.43mi
200 Cajeput Dr Naples, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	25d	1	1.45mi
287 Quail Forest Blvd #117 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	993	$1,695	$1.71	16d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $699 · $8,388/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    price $205,000
17. 2026-01-16
    listed $220,000 Active
18. 2026-01-15
    historical
19. 2025-06-19
    price $242,000
20. 2025-02-18
    listed $255,000 Active
21. 2024-05-13
    historical
22. 2024-03-11
    price $275,000
23. 2024-01-05
    listed $279,900 Active
24. 2015-05-15
    listed $58,000
25. 2010-10-05
    soldstatus $58,000
26. 2010-08-10
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$391/yr (+$33/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,311
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − HOA: −$8,388
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$6,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,526
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #10798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 18,514
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+253.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $205,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $220,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $242,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-18 Listed $255,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-05-13 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed $275,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-01-05 Listed $279,900 FORTMLS
• 2015-05-15 Listed $58,000 FORTMLS
• 2010-10-05 Sold (MLS) $58,000 FORTMLS
• 2010-08-10 Listing Removed — FORTMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,311 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.