312 Mary Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$189,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $140k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED! Looking for a brick 4 bedroom house that is affordable? Look no further! Located at the cul de sac this house has lots of charm and space. The house has fresh new paint, new carpeting, great room, wet bar, split floor plan, master bath has large vanity & whirlpool tub, master bedroom has a private porch, deck, single garage, nice flower area with arch trellis, fenced yard, shed, & much more. This house is move-in ready and awaiting new owners!

Key facts

• Built 1980

Tags

• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MEDICAL
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CASINOS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-518/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 9350% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $189k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,869 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Lavelle Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (0%)	3mo	$140,000	$133	86
201 Mary Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,053 (+0%)	10mo	$170,000	$161	81
201 Tandy Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,026 (-2%)	9mo	$89,900	$88	74
1008 Debra Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,066 (+2%)	10mo	$139,900	$131	62
218 Kimberly Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	980 (-7%)	10mo	$89,900	$92	62
710 Beverly Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,014 (-3%)	3mo	$140,000	$138	61
801 Shirley Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5 (-1)	986 (-6%)	5mo	$80,750	$82	61
12095 Highland Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	912 (-13%)	4mo	$79,850	$88	48
13470 Windsong Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (+9%)	10mo	$160,000	$140	48
13007 Walnut Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,017 (-3%)	9mo	$169,000	$166	47
120 Imilda Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+14%)	3mo	$79,900	$67	43
122 Clarence Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+14%)	10mo	$179,500	$150	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,676
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,071
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $182,753

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12040 Highland Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1019	$950	$0.93	13d	1	0.49mi
12147 Prudie Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1100	$975	$0.89	43d	1	0.56mi
1009 Michelle Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1254	$1,650	$1.32	43d	1	0.60mi
125 Clarence Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	13d	1	0.61mi
12450 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,295	$1.18	43d	1	0.61mi
13070 Tracewood Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,400	$1.18	21d	1	1.04mi
101 Fore St Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,700	$1.40	13d	1	1.06mi
11200 Three Rivers Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,445	$1.29	13d	1	1.07mi
15251 Parkwood Dr N Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	1.27mi
11502 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	21d	1	1.28mi
11425 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	21d	1	1.35mi
11413 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	1.35mi
11487 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	1.35mi
11405 Camden Court Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,775	$1.19	43d	1	1.35mi
15373 Saint Charles St Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.0–3.0	1075	$1,350	$1.26	43d	2	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2024-09-25
   historical $2,000
2. 2024-09-21
   listed $2,000
3. 2024-09-16
   historical $2,000
4. 2024-08-18
   listed $2,000
5. 2023-12-14
   historical
6. 2023-07-28
   price $169,500
7. 2023-06-13
   listed $176,000 Active
8. 2018-08-06
   soldstatus 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   REDUCED! Looking for a brick 4 bedroom house that is affordable? Look no further! Located at the cul de sac this house has lots of charm and space. The house has fresh new paint, new carpeting, great room, wet bar, split floor plan, master bath has large vanity & whirlpool tub, master bedroom has a private porch, deck, single garage, nice flower area with arch trellis, fenced yard, shed, & much more. This house is move-in ready and awaiting new owners!

9. 2018-08-03
   soldstatus $125,000
10. 2017-08-30
    listed $124,900 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    REDUCED! Looking for a brick 4 bedroom house that is affordable? Look no further! Located at the cul de sac this house has lots of charm and space. The house has fresh new paint, new carpeting, great room, wet bar, split floor plan, master bath has large vanity & whirlpool tub, master bedroom has a private porch, deck, single garage, nice flower area with arch trellis, fenced yard, shed, & much more. This house is move-in ready and awaiting new owners!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,750
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$900
• After-tax cash flow: $382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-98.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-25 Rental Removed $2,000 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-21 Listed for Rent $2,000 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-16 Rental Removed $2,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-08-18 Listed for Rent $2,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-12-14 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-07-28 Price Changed $169,500 MLSU
• 2023-06-13 Listed $176,000 MLSU
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-30 Listed $124,900 MLSU

Property tax history

-24.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $69 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.