1321 Clay St · Bowling Green, KY 42101

$99,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,628 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1910 8,712 sqft lot Est $176k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own a duplex. One side is currently being rented at $525/month, while the other is vacant and was previously rented at $700/month. Property does need some work to the floors, but with updates this could be a strong cash-flowing investment. Perfect for investors looking to build or grow their rental portfolio. Showing available with an acceptable offer. Home is being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 153 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential income property — duplex (multi-family)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Approximately 0.2 acre lot

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $99,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$175,824) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $519/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.2% in Bowling Green — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bowling Green Independent (urban): math 37% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #44 of 165 in KY (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parker-Bennett-Curry School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 346 students, 100% FRL); Bowling Green Junior High (math 37% / reading 46%, grade F, #51 of 217 statewide, top 24%, 963 students, 65% FRL); Bowling Green High School (math 39% / reading 39%, grade F, #51 of 254 statewide, top 21%, 1,294 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 591 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,060/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 3855% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.56%
• DSCR: 2.98
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,824
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1160 Stubbins St	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,574 (-3%)	15mo	$170,000	$108	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $44,450
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $102,438
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42101

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $278/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $1,039

Break-even live

Break-even rent $745

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 45%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,060
Total (2 units)			$2,060

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1525 Park St Bowling Green, KY	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	21d	1	0.64mi
1225 N Lee Dr Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,345	$1.12	44d	1	0.81mi
509 University Dr Bowling Green, KY	5.0	2.0	2071	$2,400	$1.16	21d	1	1.06mi
1117 Greenwood Aly Bowling Green, KY	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	13d	2	1.07mi
1307 Magnolia St Bowling Green, KY	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	21d	1	1.07mi
1233 Henry Dr Bowling Green, KY	3.0	1.0	1107	$1,250	$1.13	13d	1	1.25mi
1706 Kirby Dr Bowling Green, KY	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,350	$1.10	13d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-01-16
    listed $109,900 Active
17. 2025-08-28
    listed $120,000 Active
18. 2021-05-18
    soldstatus $260,000
19. 2019-10-01
    soldstatus $55,000
20. 2019-01-18
    listed $62,900
21. 2018-05-18
    listed $55,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $278 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $859 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$581/yr (+$48/mo · 209.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$278
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $11,485
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,757
• After-tax cash flow: $9,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bowling Green Independent
• NCES district ID: 2100570
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $31,181
• Composite: 31.86/100
• National rank: #5870
• State rank: #44 of 165 in KY

Livability — Bowling Green

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #12782

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bowling Green, KY
• County: Warren County · 129,408 people
• City population: 129,408
• Metro: Bowling Green, KY
• Population (ZIP): 65,421
• Household income: $48,217
• Rent vs Own: 55.3% rent · 44.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3855.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,620 people
• By 2030: 155,977 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 179,381 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 203,713 · +40.9%
• By 2075: 267,291 · +84.8%
• By 2100: 314,019 · +117.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% American 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.3) · D 37.0% · R 61.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -24.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.3 2020: R+16.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.34%
• Current HPI: 277.6554
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Metro: Bowling Green, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+96.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $109,900 RASKMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $120,000 RASKMLS
• 2021-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-01 Sold (MLS) $55,000 RASKMLS
• 2019-01-18 Listed $62,900 RASKMLS
• 2018-05-18 Listed $55,900 RASKMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $278 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.