9421 Carol Dr · Three Points, AZ 85736

$110,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 786 sqft · Manufactured · 281 Days on market

Built 1970 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

FIX-UP OPPORTUNITY SOLD AS-IS!! This find is a diamond in the rough. Great potential with some TLC you can bring back to life nestled in the beautiful Arizona desert with gorgeous night starlit sky views. This is a 12x64 1970 year built, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths manufactured home. Large lot completely fenced-in with double access entry at west and east wing, permitted in 2014 added a spacious carport 18x22, professionally installed wheelchair accessible metal ramp leading to main entry of the home. City water and Paved roads maintained by Pima County. Don't miss out! Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• Double access entry
• City water
• Spacious carport

Tags

• LARGE LOT COMPLETELY FENCED IN
• DOUBLE ACCESS ENTRY
• SPACIOUS CARPORT
• CITY WATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered/carport spaces; RV gated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single story; Faces north
• Construction: Frame and siding construction with steel frame elements; Metal roof; Built on foundation suitable for manufactured homes
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Paved road access (county-maintained); Subdivided lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan; Disposal; Electric range; Electric oven
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Propane heating; Ceiling fans; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Accessible entrance with ramp and wide doorways; Fixer condition
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.7% in Three Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#286 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Altar Valley Elementary District (4418) (rural): math 15% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #202 of 249 in AZ (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robles Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 389 students, 79% FRL); Altar Valley Middle School (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 196 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $110k implies a 746% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.79%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $79,121
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $217,743
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85736

• Home prices YoY: 29.2%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $258/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $815

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $365	-5% $334	+0% $302	+5% $271	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $255	+0% $302	+5% $350	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $358	-0.5pp $330	base $302	+0.5pp $274	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 260 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    status Active
16. 2026-04-01
    historical
17. 2026-02-27
    price $110,000
18. 2026-01-20
    price $120,000
19. 2026-01-02
    status Active
20. 2026-01-02
    price $130,000
21. 2026-01-01
    historical
22. 2025-12-03
    price $120,000
23. 2025-09-08
    listed $130,000 Active
24. 1999-11-17
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $258 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $726 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$468/yr (+$39/mo · 180.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$258
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,150
• − Management: −$1,150
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$458
• After-tax cash flow: $3,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altar Valley Elementary District (4418)
• NCES district ID: 0404770
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,645
• Composite: 14.52/100
• National rank: #9420
• State rank: #202 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Three Points

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #24371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Three Points, AZ
• City population: 10,893
• Population (ZIP): 4,249

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 45% Two or more races 22% Native American 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scottish 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 78.66%
• Current HPI: 347.59
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+746.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $110,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $120,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $130,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $120,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-08 Listed $130,000 MLSSAZ
• 1999-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $258 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.