136 Kingston Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1952 2,856 sqft lot Est $210k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1952
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area approximately 1,152 (assessor); Below-grade unfinished area approximately 576 (assessor); Total below-grade area approximately 576; Year built source: Assessor
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric or other power source for cooling and heating (specified as Other)
• Home design: Brick construction; Entry level not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Brick exterior; Block foundation; End of row/townhouse structure
• Exterior features: End-of-row townhouse; No tidal water on the property

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; 60+ gallon hot water tank
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.2% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hawthorne Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #766 of 860 statewide, top 93%, 491 students, 87% FRL); Stemmers Run Middle (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 838 students, 68% FRL); Kenwood High (math 10% / reading 43%, grade F, #161 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 1,908 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 39% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 252 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.26%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,664
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2151 Coralthorn Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,194 (+4%)	2mo	$185,500	$155	84
349 Dark Head Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	6mo	$240,000	$208	80
2165 Firethorn Rd	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,024 (-11%)	6mo	$135,000	$132	69
2169 Redthorn Rd	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,272 (+10%)	5mo	$161,000	$127	66
2247 Graythorn Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,272 (+10%)	2mo	$233,000	$183	65
53 S Hawthorne Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,024 (-11%)	9mo	$222,100	$217	63
404 Grovethorn	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,274 (+11%)	4mo	$220,000	$173	62
1100 N Marlyn Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,144 (-1%)	2mo	$215,000	$188	61
133 Riverthorn Rd	0.03mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,324 (+15%)	8mo	$147,500	$111	60
2134 Redthorn Rd	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,324 (+15%)	11mo	$233,620	$176	52
658 Kingston Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-12%)	6mo	$205,000	$201	46
710 Kingston Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,319 (+14%)	1mo	$239,900	$182	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-955
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $21,820
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,123/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,442

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $583	-5% $535	+0% $486	+5% $438	+10% $390
Rent	-10% $324	-5% $405	+0% $486	+5% $568	+10% $649
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $530	base $486	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	25d	1	0.02mi
2125 Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1299	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	0.08mi
60 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1234	$2,250	$1.82	45d	1	0.13mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	25d	1	0.14mi
2202 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1324	$2,300	$1.74	45d	1	0.16mi
2203 Redthorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,200	$1.92	12d	1	0.24mi
2167 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	25d	1	0.34mi
433 Grovethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	23d	1	0.35mi
2242 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,195	$2.14	45d	1	0.38mi
2128 Cockspur Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1272	$2,100	$1.65	25d	1	0.54mi
439 Hopkins Landing Dr Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1485	$1,795	$1.21	12d	1	0.65mi
736 West Kingsway Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,742	$1.58	20d	7	0.75mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	45d	1	0.75mi
1 Alder Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	1000	$2,249	$2.25	0d	9	0.75mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	6d	1	0.76mi
303 Endsleigh Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	23d	1	0.77mi
1542 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,800	$1.47	0d	1	0.84mi
1516 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	23d	1	0.85mi
19 Mooring Ct Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1439	$1,900	$1.32	0d	1	0.87mi
1513 Aldeney Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	25d	1	0.88mi
28 Ebbing Ct Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,095	$1.43	0d	1	0.91mi
201 Middleway Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,571	$2.09	3d	24	0.91mi
42 Holcumb Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1452	$2,200	$1.52	45d	1	0.96mi
54 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,950	$1.55	45d	1	1.01mi
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	45d	1	1.02mi
22 Nakota Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1194	$2,000	$1.68	45d	1	1.04mi
326 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	4.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	45d	1	1.11mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	3d	1	1.11mi
1314 First Rd Middle River, MD	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,700	$1.69	0d	1	1.14mi
421 Torner Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,050	$2.00	23d	1	1.15mi
2 Driftwood Ct Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	720	$1,168	$1.62	0d	5	1.21mi
4 Essex Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	25d	1	1.29mi
1409 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	6d	1	1.41mi
1402 Nicolay Way Unit 1 Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$1,925	$1.34	6d	1	1.41mi
1402 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,925	$1.34	5d	1	1.41mi
9901 Langs Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,795	$1.89	45d	10	1.46mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	6d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,123
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,975
• − Management: −$1,975
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,302
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$792
• After-tax cash flow: $5,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+392.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $361,682 Public Records
• 1997-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1977-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $34,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,123 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.