203 Wren Rd · Highland Springs, VA 23223

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1937 0.93 ac lot Est $268k · 46% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Listed below assessed value. Calling all investors. 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath cottage located in eastern Henrico county. Newer roof, 1 1/2 car garage with lean to, carport, shed with lean to and circular paved driveway on almost 1 acre of land. Cash only property sold as is.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• 1 1/2 car garage
• 0.93 acre lot

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• 1 1/2 CAR GARAGE
• CIRCULAR PAVED DRIVEWAY
• ALMOST 1 ACRE OF LAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces; Driveway (paved)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Well water
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Block and drywall construction with vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Storage; Shed(s); Paved driveway; Circular driveway

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedrooms and living areas combined)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heating by baseboard, electric, and heat pump
• Interior features: Vinyl and wood flooring; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.1% in Highland Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#196 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $145k implies a 164% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.82%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Emerson St	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,057 (+1%)	1mo	$270,000	$255	76
301 Buffalo Rd	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-5%)	14mo	$266,000	$266	74
213 Buffalo Rd	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	956 (-9%)	14mo	$260,000	$272	66
315 Cedar Fork Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+5%)	12mo	$269,900	$245	63
5121 Bending Branch Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	974 (-7%)	18mo	$242,000	$248	59
217 Liberty	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-9%)	6mo	$155,000	$161	58
220 Cedar Fork Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+5%)	0mo	$300,000	$273	54
2 Emerson St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	2mo	$320,000	$267	45
5517 Jefferson St	0.59mi	3/1.5 (+1)	960 (-9%)	13mo	$254,000	$265	41
5906 3rd St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	4mo	$274,950	$229	37
3809 Korth Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (+7%)	12mo	$260,000	$230	34
205 Seaton Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,189 (+13%)	18mo	$230,000	$193	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $10,167
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $70,994
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23223

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,280/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,174

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 Natchez Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,850	$1.71	2d	1	0.11mi
315 Natchez Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1176	$1,995	$1.70	23d	1	0.19mi
120 Barker Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,597	$1.50	2d	1	0.77mi
5951 Tiger Lily Ln Richmond, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1080	$1,375	$1.27	1d	12	0.86mi
11 N Laburnum Ave Richmond, VA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,339	$1.71	2d	20	0.93mi
400 Acreview Dr Henrico, VA	1.0	1.5	1300	$875	$0.67	43d	1	1.04mi
1005 W Nine Mile Rd Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	783	$1,345	$1.72	43d	1	1.13mi
1005 W Nine Mile Rd Unit J Henrico, VA	2.0	1.0	783	$1,395	$1.78	23d	1	1.14mi
500 S Laburnum Ave Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,950	$1.95	19d	1	1.40mi
4704 Greenleigh Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1188	$2,200	$1.85	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $145,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 270-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,280
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $3,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$726
• After-tax cash flow: $4,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Highland Springs

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #6085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highland Springs, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 8,347
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 54,659
• Household income: $55,731
• Rent vs Own: 56.2% rent · 43.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3530.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 19% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -257.81%
• Current HPI: 324.0589
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.38%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+163.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $145,000 CVRMLS
• 2023-04-25 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2023-04-25 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2023-04-22 Listed $125,000 CVRMLS
• 1992-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,280 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.