3809 Ambersweet Xing · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$389,900

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,463 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 2025 4,800 sqft lot $284/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLD DATE ONLY - NEW CONSTRUCTION

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Waterfront views
• Open floor plan

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• SEAMLESS SCREEN LANAI
• WATERFRONT VIEWS
• PAVER DRIVEWAY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed; Association approval required
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $25,000; Total annual HOA fees: $3,411.96; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (Rye Ranch) — monthly fee includes internet and grounds maintenance; Monthly HOA: $284.33

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (completed); Two-story home; West-facing
• Construction: Block, cement siding, stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Screened porch; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stone counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry room inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-221 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $311,182 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-86,341
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-128,404
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,259/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$284
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,392

Max offer price $350,850

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $284 · $3,408/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $389,900 Active
16. 2026-03-25
    historical $3,300
17. 2026-02-15
    price $3,300
18. 2026-01-26
    price $3,450
19. 2025-12-29
    price $3,550
20. 2025-12-15
    listed $3,900
21. 2025-06-27
    soldstatus $370,000 33-char remark

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    SOLD DATE ONLY - NEW CONSTRUCTION

22. 2025-06-27
    listed $370,000 33-char remark

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    SOLD DATE ONLY - NEW CONSTRUCTION

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,259 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$977/yr (+$81/mo · 43.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$2,259
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,987
• − Management: −$2,987
• − HOA: −$3,408
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$9,432
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,264
• After-tax cash flow: $-389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $389,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Rental Removed $3,300 STELLARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $3,300 STELLARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $3,450 STELLARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $3,550 STELLARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed for Rent $3,900 STELLARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $370,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Sold (MLS) $370,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid