Aspen Plan · Foristell, MO 63348

$269,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily · 508 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful ranch home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths with 7 different exterior elevation choices. The large great room opens to the breakfast room, and the kitchen features plenty of cabinetry and workspace. The master bedroom offers a walk in closet and private bath. Additional choices include various kitchen layouts, vaulted ceilings, bay window, fireplace, and extended great room & breakfast room.

Key facts

• Breakfast room
• Private bath
• Kitchen layouts

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• BREAKFAST ROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• KITCHEN LAYOUTS
• VAULTED CEILINGS

🏗️ New construction. The $269,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $333,574.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (57.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (63.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (63.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.8% vs local median 3.2% in Foristell — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#484 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Boone Trail Elem. (math 44% / reading 51%, grade D, #342 of 1,115 statewide, top 31%, 535 students, 10% FRL); Wentzville South Middle (math 49% / reading 51%, grade C, #68 of 391 statewide, top 18%, 1,131 students, 14% FRL); Timberland High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,676 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 11% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 508 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $99,900 (63.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 508 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.30% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.48%
• DSCR: 0.13
• GRM: 27.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,574
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -19.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Freedom Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,179 (+2%)	3mo	$289,900	$246	92
90 Town Centre Ct	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+6%)	2mo	$321,900	$265	85
408 Honor Hill Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+11%)	12mo	$299,900	$234	61
189 Libert Valley Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+11%)	8mo	$355,543	$278	60
803 Colony Ridge Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+11%)	15mo	$338,705	$265	58
705 Celebration Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+11%)	12mo	$347,426	$272	58
506 Founders Way	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+11%)	22mo	$299,900	$234	54
608 Allegiance Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+11%)	19mo	$309,900	$242	52
140 Liberty Valley Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+11%)	22mo	$320,000	$250	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -56.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-150,596
• Equity at exit: $49,737

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.73×
• Total profit: $-255,409
• Equity at exit: $28,841

Cash invested: $93,401 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,900 ($216/sqft)
• Median days on market: 106 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +34.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 63348

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 22.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,749
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$417 /mo · $5,004/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-1,516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,918

Max offer price $114,200

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,286	-5% $-1,401	+0% $-1,516	+5% $-1,631	+10% $-1,747
Rent	-10% $-1,595	-5% $-1,556	+0% $-1,516	+5% $-1,477	+10% $-1,437
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,348	-0.5pp $-1,431	base $-1,516	+0.5pp $-1,602	+1.0pp $-1,690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,394
• Closing costs: $10,007
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 N Main St Foristell, MO	1.0	1.0	1000	$999	$1.00	35d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 508 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 507 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $269,900 Active 506 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $269,900 Active 505 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $269,900 Active 504 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $269,900 Active 503 DOM
7. 2026-08-01
   days on market $269,900 Active 500 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $269,900 Active 499 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $269,900 Active 498 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $269,900 Active 497 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $269,900 Active 495 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $269,900 Active 493 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,900 Active 492 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,900 Active 491 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $269,900 Active 490 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $269,900 Active 489 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,900 Active 487 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,900 Active 486 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $269,900 Active 485 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $269,900 Active 484 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $269,900 Active 483 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,900 Active 482 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,900 Active 481 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $269,900 Active 480 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $269,900 Active 479 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $269,900 Active 478 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 476 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $269,900 Active 475 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $269,900 Active 474 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 472 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 471 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 470 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $269,900 Active 469 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $269,900 Active 468 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $269,900 Active 467 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $269,900 Active 466 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $269,900 Active 465 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $269,900 Active 463 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $269,900 Active 461 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $269,900 Active 460 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $269,900 Active 457 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $269,900 Active 456 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $269,900 Active 455 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $269,900 Active 454 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $269,900 Active 452 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $269,900 Active 451 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,900 Active 448 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,900 Active 447 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,900 Active 446 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,900 Active 443 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,685
• − Property taxes: −$5,004
• − Insurance: −$1,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$959
• − Management: −$959
• − Depreciation: −$9,704
• Taxable loss: −$24,991
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,998
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,750–$17,250 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good roof, windows, and foundation. The home has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh coat of paint to enhance its curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Replace the carpet in the bedrooms — New carpet can make the bedrooms more comfortable and appealing to renters. ↑
• Both Clean the air filters — Clean air filters can improve air quality and reduce energy costs, making the home more comfortable and cost-effective for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Journey Elementary F MO #472/1,115 Nat'l #17,359/41,679 Middle North Point Middle School High North Point High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Foristell

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #484
• US rank: #18988

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Foristell, MO
• County: St. Charles · 437,857 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 10,207
• Household income: $106,458
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.34%
• Current HPI: 219.9838
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $269,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $264,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $259,900 Zillow
• 2024-12-31 Listed $249,900 Zillow