501 Wells St · Greenfield, MO 65661

$179,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,938 sqft · Other public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1883 6,098 sqft lot $46/sqft · 43% below area Est $231k · 22% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1883

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($396/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#707 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenfield R-IV (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #283 of 535 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Dade County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1883 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,081 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1883 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,421
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -22.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $23,709
• Equity at exit: $80,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $81,399
• Equity at exit: $124,662

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65661

• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,043/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $179,900 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $179,900 Active
4. 2025-04-03
   status Active
5. 2025-01-26
   price $199,900
6. 2024-12-01
   price $214,992
7. 2024-07-17
   price $220,000
8. 2024-04-01
   listed $240,000 Active
9. 2023-11-30
   soldstatus Closed
10. 2023-10-26
    historical
11. 2023-10-26
    status Pending
12. 2023-10-18
    price $189,000
13. 2023-10-05
    price $199,999
14. 2023-10-05
    price $210,000
15. 2023-10-05
    price $205,000
16. 2023-09-02
    listed $225,000 Active
17. 2023-09-02
    listed $215,000 Active
18. 2023-08-30
    status Pending
19. 2023-08-30
    status Pending
20. 2023-08-08
    historical
21. 2023-08-08
    historical
22. 2023-07-14
    status Pending
23. 2023-07-14
    status Pending
24. 2023-06-29
    listed $215,000 Active
25. 2023-06-29
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,043 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,745 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$702/yr (+$59/mo · 67.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,043
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,383
• − Management: −$1,383
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,729
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $1,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenfield R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2913320
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,532
• Composite: 37.12/100
• National rank: #9032
• State rank: #283 of 535 in MO

Livability — Greenfield

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #707
• US rank: #22880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greenfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,385

Population outlook (Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,043 people
• By 2030: 6,687 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 5,989 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 5,324 · -24.4%
• By 2075: 4,122 · -41.5%
• By 2100: 3,168 · -55.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 3% American 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.0% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.9pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+64.5 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-16.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-10 Listed $179,900 SOMO
• 2025-04-03 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-01-26 Price Changed $199,900 SOMO
• 2024-12-01 Price Changed $214,992 SOMO
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $220,000 SOMO
• 2024-04-01 Listed $240,000 SOMO
• 2023-11-30 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2023-10-26 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-10-26 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-10-18 Price Changed $189,000 SOMO
• 2023-10-05 Price Changed $199,999 SOMO
• 2023-10-05 Price Changed $210,000 SOMO
• 2023-10-05 Price Changed $205,000 SOMO
• 2023-09-02 Listed $215,000 SOMO
• 2023-09-02 Listed $225,000 SOMO
• 2023-08-30 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-08-30 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-08-08 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-08-08 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-07-14 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-07-14 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-06-29 Listed $225,000 SOMO
• 2023-06-29 Listed $215,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,043 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.