1713 Avenue M · Bay City, TX 77414

$74,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 344 Days on market

Built 1960 0.27 ac lot $41/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom with extra flex room could be a great investment opportunity. With an open concept, split floor plan and essentially 2 primary bedrooms, the possibilities are endless. This home features a metal roof, generous backyard and ample parking, right in the heart of Bay City.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Open concept
• Ample parking

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• AMPLE PARKING
• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($779/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.12%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,104
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -67.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2407 16th St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,786 (-1%)	0mo	$264,900	$148	82
2509 Grace St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,684 (-7%)	4mo	$257,900	$153	67
2612 Patriot Run	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (-7%)	1mo	$249,990	$149	63
2620 Patriot Run	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-5%)	1mo	$258,991	$151	63
1017 Live Oak Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-5%)	2mo	$252,990	$147	60
1101 Live Oak Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (-7%)	2mo	$248,990	$149	59
1117 Live Oak Ave	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (+6%)	2mo	$260,990	$136	59
1104 Independence Ave	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,003 (+11%)	1mo	$284,900	$142	57
2616 Patriot Run	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-11%)	1mo	$241,990	$151	57
1113 Live Oak Ave	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,979 (+9%)	1mo	$248,990	$126	56
2624 Del Monte Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,974 (+9%)	0mo	$219,000	$111	54
5024 Freedom Ln	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,979 (+9%)	1mo	$250,990	$127	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-7,156
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $2,562
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,539 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,602/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,457

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2824 4th St Bay City, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	43d	1	0.62mi
3112 15th St Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1983	$1,800	$0.91	43d	1	0.62mi
2600 Avenue K Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,665	$1.30	43d	1	0.66mi
1417 Highland Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,600	$0.96	43d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,900 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 343 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 342 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 341 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 340 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,900 Active 338 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,900 Active 337 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 334 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 333 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 332 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 331 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 327 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 326 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 325 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 324 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $74,900 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom with extra flex room could be a great investment opportunity. With an open concept, split floor plan and essentially 2 primary bedrooms, the possibilities are endless. This home features a metal roof, generous backyard and ample parking, right in the heart of Bay City.

17. 2026-04-08
    price $79,900 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom with extra flex room could be a great investment opportunity. With an open concept, split floor plan and essentially 2 primary bedrooms, the possibilities are endless. This home features a metal roof, generous backyard and ample parking, right in the heart of Bay City.

18. 2026-02-02
    price $85,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom with extra flex room could be a great investment opportunity. With an open concept, split floor plan and essentially 2 primary bedrooms, the possibilities are endless. This home features a metal roof, generous backyard and ample parking, right in the heart of Bay City.

19. 2025-12-19
    price $90,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom with extra flex room could be a great investment opportunity. With an open concept, split floor plan and essentially 2 primary bedrooms, the possibilities are endless. This home features a metal roof, generous backyard and ample parking, right in the heart of Bay City.

20. 2025-11-10
    price $94,900 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom with extra flex room could be a great investment opportunity. With an open concept, split floor plan and essentially 2 primary bedrooms, the possibilities are endless. This home features a metal roof, generous backyard and ample parking, right in the heart of Bay City.

21. 2025-09-18
    price $99,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom with extra flex room could be a great investment opportunity. With an open concept, split floor plan and essentially 2 primary bedrooms, the possibilities are endless. This home features a metal roof, generous backyard and ample parking, right in the heart of Bay City.

22. 2025-07-10
    listed $105,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 3 bathroom with extra flex room could be a great investment opportunity. With an open concept, split floor plan and essentially 2 primary bedrooms, the possibilities are endless. This home features a metal roof, generous backyard and ample parking, right in the heart of Bay City.

23. 2025-07-09
    historical
24. 2025-06-24
    price $105,000
25. 2025-05-22
    price $122,900
26. 2025-04-15
    price $139,900
27. 2025-03-06
    listed $157,500 Active
28. 2025-01-09
    historical
29. 2024-04-02
    price $164,900
30. 2024-02-27
    listed $174,900 Active
31. 2023-03-09
    soldstatus
32. 2023-03-06
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2022-11-21
    status Pending
34. 2022-11-15
    soldstatus
35. 2022-10-18
    price $189,900
36. 2022-10-10
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,602 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,602 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$3,602
• − Insurance: −$5,493
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $41
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10
• After-tax cash flow: $769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-61.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $94,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $122,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed $157,500 HARMLS
• 2025-01-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2024-02-27 Listed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2023-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-11-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-10-18 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2022-10-10 Listed $195,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,602 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.