1858 Jennings Way · Middleburg, FL 32068

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Townhouse · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $186/sqft · at area comps Est $266k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enter through the covered porch into the foyer, where a powder bath and convenient access to the garage are located. Continue into the open-concept main level, featuring a kitchen that flows into the dining area and family room. A door connects the main living space to the rear patio, extending the home's usable area outdoors. Upstairs, a centrally located laundry room adds everyday functionality. The primary bedroom includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom. The layout is designed for comfort, efficiency, and flexibility to best fit your needs.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Private bath
• Rear patio

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• KITCHEN FLOWS INTO DINING AREA
• REAR PATIO
• CENTRALLY LOCATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 35% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $198,730 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,905
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -4.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1870 Jennings Way	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+2%)	1mo	$229,990	$164	93
1874 Jennings Way	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+2%)	1mo	$229,990	$164	93
3625 Prancer Pt	0.93mi	3/2.5	1,427 (+4%)	0mo	$269,455	$189	56
3621 Prancer Pt	0.94mi	3/2.5	1,427 (+4%)	1mo	$259,440	$182	56
3613 Prancer Pt	0.94mi	3/2.5	1,427 (+4%)	1mo	$258,440	$181	56
3597 Prancer Pt	0.96mi	3/2.5	1,427 (+4%)	1mo	$279,440	$196	56
3617 Prancer Pt	0.94mi	3/2.5	1,427 (+4%)	1mo	$259,440	$182	55
3592 Prancer Pt	0.95mi	3/2.5	1,427 (+4%)	2mo	$269,440	$189	55
3596 Prancer Pt	0.95mi	3/2.5	1,427 (+4%)	2mo	$261,440	$183	55
3600 Prancer Pt	0.95mi	3/2.5	1,427 (+4%)	3mo	$265,000	$186	54
3569 Palomino Ct	0.97mi	3/2.5	1,427 (+4%)	3mo	$266,300	$187	54
3827 Baxley Villas Ct	0.77mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+17%)	2mo	$285,000	$178	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-52,829
• Equity at exit: $38,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-58,742
• Equity at exit: $22,047

Cash invested: $71,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $260,490 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 875
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $227,177

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-104	+0% $-192	+5% $-280	+10% $-368
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-271	+0% $-192	+5% $-114	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-127	base $-192	+0.5pp $-258	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,748
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3861 Baxley Villas Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1604	$1,835	$1.14	8d	1	0.73mi
1637 Ascend Ln Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$2,259	$1.93	58d	12	0.78mi
1503 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,800	$1.23	10d	1	0.81mi
1469 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,000	$1.36	119d	1	0.84mi
1854 Alberta Ct N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,735	$1.46	75d	1	0.88mi
1834 Manitoba Ct N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	64d	1	0.89mi
1854 Mackenzie Ct N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,659	$1.08	69d	1	0.91mi
1846 Manitoba Ct N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,036	$1.59	10d	1	0.92mi
1862 Mackenzie Ct N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,650	$1.52	94d	1	0.93mi
1371 Summerbrook Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,915	$1.31	64d	1	0.95mi
1871 Alberta Ct S Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$1,720	$1.13	119d	1	0.96mi
1809 Penzance Pkwy Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$1,990	$1.17	88d	1	0.97mi
1809 Penzance Pkwy Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,990	$1.16	81d	1	0.97mi
1685 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$2,200	$1.82	10d	1	1.00mi
1633 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1502	$1,900	$1.26	119d	1	1.02mi
1629 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	2.0	3.0	1210	$1,800	$1.49	94d	1	1.02mi
1883 Mackenzie Ct S Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,628	$1.29	88d	1	1.02mi
1883 Mackenzie Ct S Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,654	$1.31	94d	1	1.02mi
1334 Camp Ridge Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,175	$1.41	119d	1	1.12mi
1804 Sherwood Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,685	$1.40	10d	1	1.19mi
1291 Sorrelwood Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1797	$1,950	$1.09	1d	1	1.22mi
1811 Sheraton Lakes Cir Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,650	$1.26	8d	1	1.24mi
1706 Foggy Day Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,030	$1.13	64d	1	1.25mi
1867 Sheraton Lakes Cir Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,395	$1.08	10d	1	1.27mi
4013 White Bark Plantation Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,821	$1.16	58d	1	1.30mi
3615 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.5	1854	$1,945	$1.05	74d	1	1.35mi
3537 Whisper Creek Blvd Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,950	$1.21	10d	1	1.35mi
1793 Foggy Day Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,100	$1.16	119d	1	1.37mi
3640 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,665	$1.41	88d	1	1.37mi
2044 Hunters Trace Cir Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,735	$1.26	0d	1	1.37mi
1976 Hunters Trace Cir Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,865	$1.18	83d	1	1.43mi
3413 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,711	$1.30	116d	1	1.47mi
1897 High Prairie Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1729	$1,950	$1.13	10d	1	1.47mi
1897 High Prairie Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1729	$1,950	$1.13	5d	1	1.47mi
1568 Backwater Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,895	$1.19	119d	1	1.48mi
1880 Pineta Cove Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,930	$1.47	1d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1858 Jennings Way, Middleburg FL 32068Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $239,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral airHeat pump
• Home design: Single-family (spec new construction, Plan: Basel)1,372 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-07-23
   days on market $254,990 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-07-22
   days on market $254,990 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-07-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-07-20
   days on market $254,990 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-07-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-07-18
   pricedays on market $254,990 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-07-16
   days on market $239,990 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-07-15
   days on market $239,990 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-07-14
   days on market $239,990 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,990 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,990 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,990 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,990 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-07-09
    days on market $239,990 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,990 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,990 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,990 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,990 Active 24 DOM
19. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,990 Active 23 DOM
20. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 22 DOM
21. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,990 Active 21 DOM
22. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,990 Active 20 DOM
23. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,990 Active 19 DOM
24. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,990 Active 18 DOM
25. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,990 Active 17 DOM
26. 2026-06-22
    days on market $239,990 Active 13 DOM
27. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,990 Active 12 DOM
28. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,990 Active 9 DOM
29. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,990 Active 8 DOM
30. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,990 Active 7 DOM
31. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,990 Active 6 DOM
32. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,990 Active 4 DOM
33. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,990 Active 3 DOM
34. 2026-06-09
    remarks 605-char remark
35. 2026-06-09
    listed $239,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,283
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$6,769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances replacement — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement in high-traffic areas — Updated flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and reduce utility costs. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tynes Elementary School B FL #552/2,144 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Wilkinson Junior High School C FL #232/571 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Middleburg High School D- FL #216/667 Nat'l #6,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 230,495 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 1858 Jennings Way, Middleburg FL 32068Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $239,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Electric serviceCentral airHeat pump
• Home design: Single-family (spec new construction, Plan: Basel)1,372 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalMicrowave