Azalea Plan · La Marque, TX 77568

$245,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 498 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Azalea floorplan-a thoughtfully designed one-story home offering between 1,451 to 1,578 square feet of open-concept living. This inviting layout includes 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a versatile 2-car garage, making it a perfect fit for modern living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 497 days

🏗️ New construction. The $245,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $261,196.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 498 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,047 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 498 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,196
• List price: $245,490
• Delta: -6.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4957 Perennial Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+4%)	2mo	$250,000	$165	87
1233 Sacred Light Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,491 (+3%)	5mo	$252,990	$170	83
1094 Garnet Star Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+8%)	0mo	$260,990	$166	80
1313 Blue Moon Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+7%)	0mo	$262,990	$170	80
26563 Eternal Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+8%)	0mo	$270,000	$172	79
1122 Radiant Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+8%)	0mo	$283,990	$180	77
1081 Garnet Star Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+8%)	4mo	$289,990	$184	76
1089 Garnet Star Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-8%)	4mo	$252,990	$190	76
1209 Sacred Light Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+11%)	0mo	$259,990	$161	73
1073 Garnet Star Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+12%)	2mo	$276,990	$170	71
1345 Blue Moon Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+12%)	1mo	$278,990	$171	67
805 Apple Blossom Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+3%)	5mo	$269,990	$180	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-68,526
• Equity at exit: $38,945

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-88,501
• Equity at exit: $22,583

Cash invested: $73,135 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 73 active · 47 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $260,490 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,370
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$326 /mo · $3,918/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,285

Max offer price $197,817

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-257	-5% $-348	+0% $-438	+5% $-528	+10% $-619
Rent	-10% $-575	-5% $-506	+0% $-438	+5% $-370	+10% $-301
Rate	-1.0pp $-306	-0.5pp $-372	base $-438	+0.5pp $-506	+1.0pp $-575

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,299
• Closing costs: $7,836
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5613 Farm to Market 2004 Unit 2004 Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$1,300	$1.35	0d	1	0.95mi
9001 Glacier Ave Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	928	$1,175	$1.27	10d	6	1.09mi
5500 FM 2004 Rd #9 Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,395	$1.17	69d	1	1.10mi
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	161d	1	1.18mi
398 Duroux Rd Unit a La Marque, TX	2.0	2.0	880	$1,000	$1.14	115d	1	1.21mi
6215 White Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,472	$1.05	3d	1	1.28mi
6203 Red Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	4.0	2.0	1440	$1,601	$1.11	0d	1	1.29mi
6210 White Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,472	$1.05	2d	1	1.29mi
6315 Red Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,601	$1.14	21d	1	1.39mi
106 W Red Oak Ln Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,661	$1.33	85d	1	1.41mi
6322 Red Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	4.0	2.0	1432	$1,601	$1.12	0d	1	1.42mi
6326 Red Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	4.0	2.0	1432	$1,601	$1.12	53d	1	1.43mi
8208 Ash Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,795	$1.06	184d	1	1.47mi
7518 Hummingbird Ln Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	113d	1	1.47mi
7510 Hummingbird Ln Texas City, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	143d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $245,490 Active 498 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $245,490 Active 497 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $245,490 Active 496 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $245,490 Active 495 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $245,490 Active 494 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $245,490 Active 492 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $245,490 Active 491 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $245,490 Active 490 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $245,490 Active 489 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $245,490 Active 488 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $245,490 Active 487 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $245,490 Active 486 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $245,490 Active 485 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $245,490 Active 484 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $245,490 Active 483 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $245,490 Active 482 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $245,490 Active 481 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $245,490 Active 480 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $245,490 Active 479 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $245,490 Active 478 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $245,490 Active 477 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $245,490 Active 476 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $245,490 Active 475 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $245,490 Active 474 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $245,490 Active 473 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $245,490 Active 472 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $245,490 Active 471 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $245,490 Active 470 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $245,490 Active 469 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $245,490 Active 468 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $245,490 Active 467 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $245,490 Active 466 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $245,490 Active 465 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $245,490 Active 464 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $245,490 Active 463 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    pricedays on market $245,490 Active 462 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $244,490 Active 461 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $244,490 Active 460 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $244,490 Active 459 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $244,490 Active 458 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $244,490 Active 457 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $244,490 Active 456 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $244,490 Active 455 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $244,490 Active 454 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $244,490 Active 453 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $244,490 Active 452 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $244,490 Active 451 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $244,490 Active 450 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $244,490 Active 449 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $244,490 Active 448 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,631
• − Property taxes: −$3,918
• − Insurance: −$1,306
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$7,598
• Taxable loss: −$10,010
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,402
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Azalea floorplan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hitchcock Pri Middle Crosby Middle F TX #1,103/1,662 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Hitchcock H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $242,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-27 Listed $251,990 Zillow